Democracy in Africa comes in for a crucial test on Monday when the electorate of Kenya goes to the polls to choose a president, a parliament and local councils; unfortunately, events so far do not augur well. Yesterday saw more violence at rallies and further indications that the candidate who hands out the most cash can still be expected to garner the most votes. The only encouraging aspects of the election so far are that it is unlikely to cost too much and fewer people are likely to die. The 1992 election, in which the ruling party Kanu reluctantly allowed opposition parties to compete, propelled the government into a vote-buying spree which came close to bankrupting the economy while hundreds died and thousands were rendered homeless in the violence.
The fact that vote-buying is widespread in Kenya is not entirely the fault of the electorate. The political parties - there are 22 lined up for Monday - fail to offer much by way of policy and appeal to the voters largely on ethnic grounds or on the basis that any party would be better than the government. The election therefore offers an impoverished electorate the opportunity to get value for something which seemingly has little value - its vote. There is much talk of the need to elect clean candidates alongside an expectation that even clean candidates must pass out the cash.
Corruption in Kenya is entrenched, even by Third World standards. Last August the government's complete failure to tackle it drove the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to suspend its loan facilities; the World Bank and bilateral donors quickly followed suit. The economy, despite some commendable husbandry by the Minister for Finance, Mr Musalia Mudavedi, is on the rocks. The spending splurge for the 1992 election, which pushed inflation up to 64 per cent, had to be corrected and it hurt. Droughts early this year were followed by flooding and the tourist industry has suffered greatly as a result of ethnic clashes in coastal areas.
If there is one thing that the government and the opposition agree on, it is that the economy can only be revived if the aid and loan packages flow again. At best, the economy might grow by 2 per cent next year. Meanwhile the population will grow by at least 3 per cent and the prospects for the 500,000 a year who enter the workforce are less than propitious. Once east Africa's most successful economy, Kenya has suffered from weak commodity prices and natural disasters. It has also suffered greatly from the inept and corrupt presidency of Mr Daniel arap Moi who, after 19 years in office, offers himself to the people for a further five.
The tragedy is that he and his Kanu party will probably win. He will then tell the IMF (due to visit next month) that it must do business with him and promise to clean up the government but he won't deliver. But Mr Moi should win because he heads a patronage machine of awesome spending power and because the opposition is hopelessly fragmented along ethnic lines. Four of the 14 candidates lined up against him are of consequence, in particular Ms Charity Ngilu who has maintained her clean image by refusing to pay for votes. Hopefully she will touch a chord with sufficient electors who want to put Kenya first.