Howard hangs on

The Prime Minister of Australia, Mr John Howard, is assured of his place in history following his coalition's emphatic victory…

The Prime Minister of Australia, Mr John Howard, is assured of his place in history following his coalition's emphatic victory in Australia's general election. In securing a fourth successive term, he is on track to become Australia's second-longest-serving Prime Minister; only Robert Menzies lasted longer.

Of equal importance to the 65 year-old Mr Howard is that he can now choose when to retire and to leave office undefeated.

The size of the coalition's victory came as a surprise. The opinion polls had the Labor Party very close to the coalition and suggested that if the government was returned to office it would be by a narrow margin. Instead, the coalition has increased its majority and will take effective control of the Senate, the first time it has been controlled by a sitting government in 25 years.

The results prove that Australians are more concerned that the economy continues to prosper than about anything else. Mr Howard was relentless throughout the campaign in reminding voters of the economy's health and insisting that handing power to an inexperienced Labor Party would put the economy in jeopardy. It was unashamed negative campaigning but it worked. In particular, Mr Howard's insistence that interest rates would rise under a Labor government struck home in Australia's so-called "mortgage belt" of big city suburbs where household debt has doubled and people would be vulnerable to even a small increase in interest rates.

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Ironically, in an unseemly campaign bidding contest, Mr Howard increased his spending pledges to over €30 billion, almost double those from the Labor Party. Yet he still managed to convince the electorate that the economy is safer in his hands. His success in this must be partly attributable to the fact that Labor's leader, Mr Mark Latham, 22 years younger than his rival, has never held a cabinet post. Labor supporters will have some soul-searching to do on their campaign strategy. However, with "trust" being such an issue, some will wonder about the wisdom of ditching the experienced Mr Kim Beazley in favour of Mr Latham just 10 months ago.

Mr Howard, for his part, must respond to the many concerns about health and education, especially now that the Senate will no longer block government policy. He can be expected to push ahead with industrial relations reform but there will be trickier tasks on pension and tax which also need attention. He may, of course, decide at an early stage to stand down in favour of the highly-regarded Treasurer, Mr Peter Costello, who will need time in office to withstand the challenge from an older - and presumably wiser - Mr Latham in three years time.