How DUP turned crisis into opportunity for fresh start

ANALYSIS:When a private scandal became a full-blown political crisis for First Minister Peter Robinson and his party, the DUP decided to save him and its stake in Stormont, writes DAN KEENAN

SOME CRISES begin not with a bang but with a pop. And so it was this extraordinary affair which so far has cost the Democratic Unionist Party an MP, an Assembly member, a councillor, to say nothing of its reputation, surefootedness, pride and character. It may yet cost Northern Ireland the devolved institutions fostered by the Belfast Agreement.

The crisis has enveloped the leadership of the ruling DUP and its political dynasties – the Robinsons and the Paisleys. It led to late-night talks and clandestine phone campaigns to force bewildered Assembly members to declare their hand: would they back the leader to save their seats as well as Stormont itself?

The “pop” came on December 28th when, apparently out of the blue, Iris Robinson isused a press release announcing she was quitting public life. “Over the years, I have undergone a long series of operations and though I have never talked about it publicly, I have, against this background, also battled against serious bouts of depression,” she said. “The stress and strain of public life comes at a cost and my health has suffered.”

Iris Robinson’s on-off appearances at Stormont all year had prompted the rumour that she had been unwell. But this came as a shock. Yet almost immediately it seemed as if there was much much more to this than was first apparent.

Iris’s resignation statement was longer than the couple of sentences that would have sufficed. It seemed apologetic. It was not followed with a flood of tributes from party colleagues – although her constituency colleagues did comment.

Something was up.

The following week, and after much comment on the virtues of public admission of severe depression, the pop was followed by the bombshell.

Three handpicked broadcast journalists and a reporter from the Press Association news agency, already focusing their efforts on the Ulster Defence Association decommissioning story, were called to DUP headquarters in east Belfast. From there they were taken to the Robinsons’ home a few minutes away in Dundonald where the curious story became an incredible one.

More statements were issued, the first in the name of Iris and the second was read out by the seemingly broken figure of Peter Robinson who told of his wife’s adultery, financial dealing and breaches of codes of conduct.

Despite the obvious emotion it was made clear that Iris Robinson’s actions were her own responsibility and remain so. It is a claim that remains key to the entire political controversy.

The following day BBC Northern Ireland announced it was going ahead with an investigation into Iris Robinson's affairs, political, sexual and financial. The screening of the Spotlightprogramme on Thursday night, with its devastating testimony from Iris's former political adviser turned whistleblower Selwyn Black, changed everything.

The public mood changed from one of sympathy into shock at the double standards of a political figure who had based her public persona on religious righteousness.

By Friday morning, the private scandal was now a full-blown political drama with the position of the First Minister and the standing of the DUP in serious doubt. What did Peter Robinson know about his wife’s wrongdoing, when did he find out and what did he do about it?

He vowed to fight on, claiming the BBC’s sole allegation against him would be contested. “In all of my public life I have acted in the most professional and ethical way. There is nothing that anybody will produce,” he said.

THE TIMINGcould hardly have been worse with the slow-burning fuse on the policing and justice row with Sinn Féin ready to ignite in dangerous fashion as the final hours of the Assembly recess ticked away. The potential for political meltdown on this issue alone had provoked alarm among the two governments and their contacts had been ramped up in response.

The events of last weekend are far from clear, but The Irish Timeshas been informed reliably that it was in the course of these dramatic few days that the DUP plan to save itself, and possibly the political process, was hatched.

The party needed to distance itself from Iris’s misconduct, establish Peter Robinson as uncontested party leader and present a business-as-usual face for the recommencement of the Assembly and talks with Sinn Féin on the vexed question of policing and justice devolution.

Despite a ban on media contacts being in force, according to one Assembly source, the idea of Robinson standing temporarily aside as First Minister was formulated on Friday.

Following a precedent set by David Trimble when he was leader of the Ulster Unionist Party and also first minister, it was suggested that Peter Robinson would stand aside from office for up to six weeks and a stand-in would be chosen from among the First Minister’s ministerial colleagues, as Assembly rules demand.

The move would ease the building political pressure, allowing him to concentrate on clearing his name. Ostensibly he would take time to look after his ill wife and deal with his by now greatly troubled family who were clearly rocked by the public disclosures.

His sons were said to be particularly troubled by the revelation, spelled out in a text message Iris had sent to Selwyn Black, about her teenage lover Kirk McCambley. In the text, which was broadcast by the BBC, she described McCambley as the son she wished she had had.

There was a clear need for the DUP to be seen to provide a political lead while Robinson conducted a legalistic defence of himself and his leadership.

Robinson also needed to make clear to Sinn Féin he would still take the driving seat in his party’s dealings with republicans to ease the threat to the entire political process. In short, he would stand aside politically from most duties associated with the First Minister’s position – except for the key one of tackling policing and justice with Sinn Féin.

At some point, party deputy leader Nigel Dodds was brought into the process. He was, and remains, central to the entire drama. Known as an influential sceptic on the transfer, from London to Stormont, of justice powers, party sources say Dodds has also been simmering over some party colleagues’ critical comments about his wife Diane’s candidacy in last June’s European election which saw the rival Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) inflict serious damage on the DUP monopoly of unionist votes.

Yet Dodds became part of the rescue plan at precisely the time when he could have seized the opportunity to position himself as a future party leader. He bought into the idea to make Arlene Foster interim First Minister while he would concentrate his efforts to steady the DUP at Westminster where some fellow MPs, Gregory Campbell among them, are deeply sceptical about devolving justice powers.

According to another reliable source, the next vital steps were taken on Sunday when Robinson, Dodds and another party insider began systematically contacting the DUP’s MPs and Assembly members to ask if they backed Peter Robinson as leader.

One insider described the choice as “saving Peter or losing Stormont”.

The next stage involved careful media management. One by one, influential DUP members began to give interviews to the broadcast media.

Last Monday morning Sammy Wilson, then Jim Wells, Edwin Poots – a confirmed Paisley loyalist – and Arlene Foster all proclaimed Robinson was their leader of choice and their faith that he was the man to lead them both out of the crisis and into a satisfactory deal on policing and justice.

Their battling performances set the tone for the reconvening of the Assembly group and other elected members later that morning – the first day back at Stormont. By the time they met in a party room, all the influential members, and many of the others, already knew of the plan to name Arlene Foster as interim First Minister in the House that afternoon.

That meeting was attended by both Dr Ian Paisley and his wife, Baroness Eileen Paisley, a positive sign that Robinson had key political backing despite some lingering unpleasantness remaining from the change of party leadership just 18 months earlier. Accounts of this meeting vary, but a contribution by Ian Paisley snr is said to have helped build a sense of unity.

That spirit was clearly to the fore when about 30 of the group descended the impressive staircase into Stormont’s Great Hall to back Dodds’s simple declaration of backing for Robinson and his party’s “desire for him to remain in office as leader of the DUP”.

The next anticipated step was the appearance of the beleaguered Robinson in the Assembly chamber at 3.30pm to face a Sinn Féin question on the implications for the Executive of the scandal surrounding his wife.

It was during lunch that news filtered out that Speaker William Hay had told a sparsely populated chamber that Arlene Foster would be fielding the Sinn Féin question as acting First Minister and not the DUP leader.

The move clearly caught the other parties by surprise – with the exception of Sinn Féin. The calmness of its response meant that Martin McGuinness and colleagues were already in the loop.

Arlene Foster’s first appearance as stand-in First Minister was a business-like affair, thanks in no small way to her assured performance. She repeated her firm belief that her party leader would clear his name and return to the Assembly as First Minister. In the meantime she would deal with “routine” matters while Robinson saw to his family, assisted his wife in her illness, restored his reputation and sorted out policing and justice with Sinn Féin.

It was a dramatic climax to a storming week which has set the scene for the next instalment of the piece – the negotiations on policing and justice at Stormont Castle between the DUP and Sinn Féin leaderships, which continued yesterday.