Mr Robert Dole has had a difficult opening week in his campaign to capture the Republican nomination for the US presidential elections. Following an unconvincing speech in response to Mr Clinton's State of the Union message, he has failed to attract popular enthusiasm on the campaign trail in New Hampshire. On the contrary, Republican activists are much more enthused by the hare brained flat tax proposal put forward by the multimillionaire businessman, Mr Steve Forbes. Opinion polls bear out the impression, showing Mr Forbes snapping at Mr Dole's tails and other candidates such as Mr Phil Gramm and Mr Pat Buchanan trailing.
If Mr Dole fails the test of the forthcoming primaries and caucuses it will be a dramatic setback for his party. His shortcomings are not difficult to catalogue. He is 72 and would be the oldest candidate ever to assume office were he to be elected in November. His long experience of Washington politics, in which he has a reputation for compromise and deal making, means that he lacks credibility as apologist for Mr Newt Gingrich's new generation of Republican radicalism. And he appears to be ill at ease on the campaign trail, a fact that comes over all too readily in a televisual age. Against this and in his favour he has a stern vision of a more self reliant United States citizenry, less dependent on federal handouts and working within the disciplines of a balanced budget all of which has become more attractive to voters in recent years.
It is his misfortune that so far Mr Clinton's energy, articulateness and political opportunism have trumped him in successive encounters and must clearly be expected to continue to do so as the campaign proceeds. It is not hard to understand why in these circumstances the Republicans should concentrate so much on prolonging the Whitewater affair in the hope that it will hobble Mr Clinton's appeal and confidence. If the opinion polls are an accurate guide to the public mood its sheer volatility in relations to the flow of positive or negative news could yet bear out the Republican calculation - but only if they manage to turn up some really dramatic news. Otherwise it looks as if Mr Clinton is in a very strong position to exploit his incumbent skills and resources.
The next few weeks will be crucial for Mr Dole. Were he to fall back, perhaps to Mr Forbes, the Republican party would face an unprecedented and fascinating decision on whether to run with such an unknown quantity, highly vulnerable to Mr Clinton's campaign techniques, or to reopen the search for more mainstream candidates who have so far refused to come forward. Mr Gingrich, Mr James Baker, Mr Jack Kemp and even Mr Colin Powell have been mentioned as alternatives in such a scenario.
This would make for an entertaining political spring and summer in the world's most developed democracy. It would be a surprising outcome, given the sweeping Republican victories in the mid term elections. Although Mr Gingrich's radicals have inevitably had to compromise on their programme, most of it has survived this would have led one to expect that they would have a more sustainable candidate than Mr Dole appears to be to offer as an alternative to Mr Clinton.