THE GOVERNMENT has plumbed new depths of dissatisfaction as it struggles to cope with the effects of the worst recession in recent memory and out-of-control public finances. Four out of five voters from all age categories are now dissatisfied with the manner in which the Coalition parties are running the country, according to the latest Irish Times/ TNSmrbi opinion poll. That negative sentiment may have a defining impact on the outcome of local, European and Dáil byelections, due to be held on June 5th.
In spite of recording the lowest satisfaction rating of any government since polling began, national support for the Fianna Fáil party only declined marginally since February, to 21 per cent. That resilience will generate little comfort, however, because support for Fine Gael in the same period grew by six points, to 38 per cent, giving that party a dominant lead. The surge of approval enjoyed by the Labour Party three months ago has dissipated somewhat, leaving that party with 20 per cent support, the second highest showing since 2002.
The imposition of income and pension levies, along with tax increases, in the last two budgets are obvious reasons for unpopularity. Public concern has been compounded by rapidly rising unemployment, perceived ministerial incompetence and uncertainty in tackling the banking and credit crises. Taoiseach Brian Cowen attracts a satisfaction rating of only 18 per cent and, even within Fianna Fáil, a majority is unhappy with his performance. Enda Kenny fares better in the leadership beauty contest, at 33 per cent, but struggles to keep up with the advances being made by Fine Gael. The clear winner in this category is Eamon Gilmore who has added a further seven points to his February showing and is the only party leader with a majority satisfaction rating.
Disillusionment with the quality of leadership being provided should be a matter of concern because of the potential for social unrest. The public has accepted falling living standards and job losses with a degree of equanimity, but unless they can be reassured that a plan exists to promote economic recovery and that their interests are being advanced, that passivity may not last. A report by the Commission on Taxation is awaited. And nationalisation of the banks is still a live issue.
In three weeks, voters will express their feelings at the local elections. And while poll figures suggest that Fianna Fáil will do badly, the outcome may not be as dire as anticipated because of the attraction of local personalities. In spite of pressure, the Green Party could hold its own. Fine Gael performed so well in the elections of 2004 that its advances on this occasion are likely to be more modest. The big winner could be the Labour Party. The intriguing question will be whether the public draw a distinction between the national and European elections where personality poolitics may be more dominant. But, the pressure on Mr Cowen is expected to grow.