ANALYSIS:They're off! And the first skirmishes are between Fine Gael and Labour – both vying for first place over a tired and dispirited Fianna Fáil, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE SCRAMBLE between Fine Gael and the Labour Party as to which of them will be the dominant force in the next Dáil began even before the curtain finally came down on the 30th Dáil yesterday afternoon.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen steered away from the temptation to make a valedictory defence of his political record and instead made a dignified farewell speech to mark the end of the 30th Dáil and the end of his political career.
In a defence of politics that should have resonated with his fellow deputies on all sides of the House, he said: “Politics is public service and it is an honourable profession. I say this with sincerity, conviction and from experience. I have no time for the cynics who talk down or belittle people in public life.”
Cowen went on to urge voters to examine the policies being advanced by each of the parties and to cast their vote accordingly. “This election should not be about personalities but serious debate, reflection and the solemn business of democracy,” he said.
Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore were in no mood for reflection on the role of the politician in the modern world and instead used the event to make a nakedly partisan pitch for votes on February 25th.
Both of them attacked the Fianna Fáil record in Government and promised that they could do far better. Kenny tried to hammer home the Fine Gael slogan about getting Ireland working and repeated the five-point plan he unveiled at the weekend.
One pledge was an oblique criticism of Labour’s commitment to a 50-50 split between extra taxes and spending cuts compared to Fine Gael’s favoured ratio of 25:75. “We will introduce fairer budgets and keep taxes low. We will fix Ireland’s budget deficit by prioritising the cutting of waste over the raising of taxes. I know that high taxes kill jobs. We will keep taxes, particularly income taxes, down. No country has ever taxed its way to economic recovery.”
Gilmore didn’t beat about the bush in taking on his main Opposition rivals as well as Fianna Fáil. “For the first time ever in the 90-year history of this State, we can elect a government which is led by neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael,” he said.
And just to reinforce the point he added: “It is clear that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are comfortable with each other’s policies. They both voted for the blanket bank guarantee. They are both happy to embrace austerity, to line up behind the EU-IMF deal, whatever the cost in jobs. It is clear that neither has any wish to break up the Celtic Tory consensus that has brought us to where we are.”
What has become clear is that the biggest contest in the coming weeks is likely to be between Fine Gael and Labour. The outcome will determine the shape of the next government and the policy direction it takes.
The most likely government to emerge after the election is still a Fine Gael-Labour coalition and the relative strengths of the two parties will be all-important both in terms of policy and personnel.
Some in Fine Gael have dared to dream that they could form a single-party minority government with the support of Independents and any Green Party survivors. Even on the most optimistic projections of 70 or more seats that is a very unlikely outcome.
Another way that Fine Gael could form a minority government would be with Fianna Fáil support. Micheál Martin hinted that he might consider such a development and Eamon Gilmore was quick to suggest that it was now a real live option. Enda Kenny has reacted like a scalded cat and ruled out any kind of deal with Fianna Fáil in any circumstances, while other Fine Gael spokesmen have pointed to Labour’s record of doing deals with Fianna Fáil in the past.
The contest between the two main Opposition parties represents a stark contrast with the last general election when Fine Gael and Labour offered themselves to the voters as an alternative with a broad agreement on policy.
Ever since Labour passed Fine Gael in a number of opinion polls early last summer the main Opposition parties have been growing increasingly tetchy with each other.
Fine Gael has increasingly stressed its commitment not to raise income tax and to take a hard look at the State sector if it gets into office.
Labour had been committed to introducing a new 48 per cent
tax on high earners but that has been dropped, with the introduction of the Universal Social Charge being cited as the reason. The party still makes no apology about relying on the State to help create jobs while Fine Gael sees the privatisation of State companies as a way of promoting job creation.
It was no accident that in recent days Fine Gael rubbished Labour’s jobs policy while
Labour has accused Fine Gael of wanting to sneak into power with the help of Fianna Fáil. The competition between the two parties looks like getting increasingly tetchy as the election campaign wears on but that will hardly prevent them from going into government together.
Two years ago Gilmore spoke of the coming election as the first genuine three-way competition for power between the parties. At that stage he could hardly have envisaged that Fianna Fáil would be the party in third place. Labour’s problem now is that various parties of the left threaten to eat into its support on one side and any resurgence in Fianna Fáil could hit it on the other.
As the campaign begins Fine Gael has opened up a decent lead over Labour while Fianna Fáil is trailing back a poor third. Labour still has ambitions of overhauling Fine Gael but Fianna Fáil has set its sights on reeling in Labour. All of them have everything to play for over the next three weeks.
The election of Micheál Martin as leader has given Fianna Fáil a bit of a morale boost but the party has a long way to go to get back into shape to prevent a meltdown. Party strategists still believe that it can win more than 20 per cent of the vote on February 25th and that this level of support can be translated into 40 seats.
Not long ago Fianna Fáil would have regarded 40 seats as an unthinkable disaster but if Martin can achieve it he will be regarded as the party’s saviour. There are a number of constituencies where Fianna Fáil will have no seat for the first time and the task is to make up for that by winning two in some.
Sinn Féin has made a surge in the polls at the right time in the run-up to the election and has a realistic chance of doubling its number of seats to 10. If the party can win further support during the campaign the gains could be much greater. There is intense competition between Sinn Féin and Labour in a number of constituencies and further competition with other left-wing parties as well.
The Green Party goes into the election with six seats but has very little chance of coming back with that many. In fact, the Greens will be relieved to hold on to any Dáil representation to give the party a foothold for the future. Whatever happens the 31st Dáil will be a very different place, but just how different we won’t know for another 3½ weeks.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor