During one of the traumatic leadership upheavals in Fianna Fáil in the never to be forgotten year of 1982-1983, a TD of long standing (now retired) said to me in a valedictory way that the party had enjoyed good times. Little was it foreseen then that the best might be still to come.
The resilience of the party through crises that might have permanently floored another organisation has been remarkable. But as the obligatory financial caution puts it, "past performance is no guarantee of future return". While Fianna Fáil's popularity has temporarily dipped sharply in the wake of major controversies, the fall in popularity today is not due to any specific crisis or scandals but reflects a disenchantment that set in soon after a remarkable repeat electoral victory. It is a situation the ardfheis in Killarney must address, as we begin the run-in to European and local elections next June.
Editorials in this and other newspapers sum up the problem, as the public perception that Fianna Fáil "conned" the electorate. Implicit in this formula is an acknowledgement that the accusation may not fully stand up but since the public firmly believes it, the objective truth is academic. My own view is that the public was well aware that the extraordinary years of the Celtic Tiger were over, and that more difficult conditions lay ahead. The outgoing Government was chosen to lead, not because of any relatively few promises, but because of its track record and the unattractiveness of the alternative.
That there would soon be a need to pull the reins tighter, or for what the ESRI calls a mild contractionary policy, was not conceded.
In an election any Government will put the best foot forward, even though it may be its first duty as a new government to make the necessary adjustments to ensure that the public finances and the economy remain on a sound footing. With most gains of the last few years, especially in employment, low inflation, lower taxes, still intact, there is much worth protecting. Much good work on addressing costly service gaps and infrastructural deficiencies has been overshadowed by messy handling, personal lapses of concentration, and some fraying of collective responsibility and party discipline. In modern politics, all problems are laid ultimately at the door of the leader. The honeymoon period of the first term is well behind us. What qualities of leadership does Bertie Ahern offer?
He is the least authoritarian of our taoisigh, who likes to resolve problems by persuasion, partnership and consensus. He is not moralistic or preachy, and very modest for one in his position. He is no gambler. He had the post of Taoiseach snatched from him in December 1994, yet worked patiently to win it back "against the head" 2 ½ years later. His career shows a consistency of values.
There is no difficulty in identifying his major achievements in nearly 30 years of public life. He keeps his head in a crisis, and in private never raises his voice. He is not one of those leaders who are reported every day to be "furious" about this or that. One needs to pay careful attention to what he says. Opponents find it hard to penetrate his defences.
As shown in the Northern Ireland peace process, he can work constructively with less easy leaders than himself of opposing outlooks. He plans long-term, and will not be much swayed by the current loss of popularity. He has resources of mettle, usually hidden, but that come out, if put sufficiently to the test. He likes to be out and about as much as he can. He takes time to apply himself conscientiously to the reading and paperwork and meetings necessary for the job. He therefore works long hours.
He enjoys much goodwill among his European colleagues, and is also popular with American presidents, both of which will stand him in good stead during Ireland's EU presidency. No Taoiseach and British prime minister have worked closer or more productively together than Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern. He is a leader at home and abroad, who is humane and wants to understand and to help, someone who has resolved dangerous standoffs.
His mildness towards colleagues in difficulties should not be misinterpreted as moral ambivalence. It merely reflects the fact that strict laws and procedures have been put in place, very often by him, which will deal rigorously and objectively with anyone flouting the law or mandatory ethical standards.
There is no one in Irish politics today, and certainly not on the Opposition benches, who has the breadth, length and substance of his experience in Cabinet, in social partnership (of which he was a principal architect), the North or in Europe. There is no shortage of party talent, some of it untried, to participate with him in government alongside the PDs.
But no one should be complacent about the apparent absence today of other coherent combinations. Fine Gael, in recent years, is ready as alternate, particularly in the event of temporary ethical disqualification. Pat Rabbitte would like to be the Tony Blair of Irish politics, occupying a reformist centre- ground, and will hardly be taking up Seamus Healy's call for a pan-socialist front.
Then there is Sinn Féin, which was moderate and progressive in the Northern Executive, beginning to challenge the Opposition as much as the Government. Of them, people are entitled to ask why nine years after the original ceasefire the democratic transformation is still incomplete, when nine years after the end of the Civil War Fianna Fáil entered government here free of organic paramilitary links.
The next election will be a formidable hurdle. The quality of the service Fianna Fáil in government can give the people needs to be refreshed and restored. The great question is whether this can be done within the parameters of existing economic policy.