French voters are preparing to go to the polls in presidential and then general elections which will determine the shape of their government for the next five years.
With federal elections due in Germany as well in September, the two largest continental states could change political tack at the same time.
So far, the French presidential contest has not really taken off. Many voters express apathy and an inability to distinguish clearly between the programmes offered by the Socialist prime minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, and the centre-right president, Mr Jacques Chirac, who are neck and neck in the polls. Others are committed to support candidates on the far left or far right, rejecting such policy convergence. This makes it difficult to predict the final result on May 5th after the first round on April 21st; much will depend on how voters whose candidates are defeated plump in the second round.
The French electorate has shown a clear preference for "cohabitation" between prime ministers and presidents from left and right over a succession of recent elections. Most expect the left-wing parties to gain another majority in the parliamentary contest, based principally on disarray among the right-wing ones, as well as the relatively satisfactory record of the left-wing coalition in government. On that basis, Mr Chirac has a possible advantage over Mr Jospin in the presidential contest. But he has not created a distinctive platform so far. Like Mr Jospin, he supports lower tax, pension reforms, a crackdown on crime and a federation of nation-states in the European Union. Mr Jospin pledges to create 100,000 jobs, end homelessness by 2007 and supports harmonisation of taxation at EU level.
The French economy has been performing relatively well, with a dynamic export sector and increased productivity flowing from the introduction of a 35-hour week for most workers - the major reform of the outgoing government. Despite that, there are deep veins of dissatisfaction flowing through society, reflected in support for far left and right candidates - alongside the mainstream centrist consensus. This makes for an uncertain and potentially volatile set of contests.
Were France and Germany to swing in the same direction - possibly to the right - the face of European politics would look very different. Mr Silvio Berlusconi's election as Italian prime minister last year, could set a trend.