The Irish Times view on the presidential election in Argentina: the centre is holding

For months pollsters have been predicting that Economy Minister Sergio Massa was about to lose Argentina’s presidential election to the country’s Trump/Bolsonaro clone, libertarian TV economist Javier Milei. To everyone’s surprise, Massa at the weekend comfortably pushed Milei into second place to set up a run-off on November 19th. This time, the same pundits predict, Massa will win comfortably.

The hard-fought race, which has been watched nervously internationally for signs of the sustainability of the far-right populist movement, comes among mixed signals internationally. It is only days after Poland’s Law and Justice Party lost its grip on power, although in Slovakia far-right candidate Smer was returned. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro was ousted last year, and many in Argentina warned that Milei’s election would be as divisive and chaotic.

For months pollsters have been predicting that Economy Minister Sergio Massa was about to lose Argentina’s presidential election to the country’s Trump/Bolsonaro clone, libertarian TV economist Javier Milei. To everyone’s surprise, Massa at the weekend comfortably pushed Milei into second place to set up a run-off on November 19th. This time, the same pundits predict, Massa will win comfortably.

The hard-fought race, which has been watched nervously internationally for signs of the sustainability of the far-right populist movement, comes among mixed signals internationally. It is only days after Poland’s Law and Justice Party lost its grip on power, although in Slovakia far-right candidate Smer was returned. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro was ousted last year, and many in Argentina warned that Milei’s election would be as divisive and chaotic.

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Milei expressly models himself on Donald Trump: the inflammatory rhetoric is familiar – Argentine-born Pope Francis is a “leftist” and an “imbecile”, and climate warming part of “the socialist agenda.” And he promises to roll back the state, cutting government spending, abolishing Argentina’s central bank and dollarising the economy. He wears “Make Argentina Great Again” hats and has built a powerful base largely of young, male voters excited about his anti-establishment rhetoric and older Argentines desperate for change.

Massa, who presides as minister over a shambolic economy with 138 per cent inflation and a plunging peso spent much of his campaign distancing himself from the country’s unpopular current president Alberto Fernández, a fellow Peronist. Currency reserves have been depleted trying to support the tumbling peso .

Massa has pitched himself as a unity candidate after the first-round vote,though he clearly represents the political establishment, and his promises are largely for more of the same economically. But Argentinians have looked over their shoulder at their big neighbour’s experience of Trumpism. And it seems they don’t like what they see.

And he promises to roll back the state, cutting government spending, abolishing Argentina’s central bank and dollarising the economy. He wears “Make Argentina Great Again” hats and has built a powerful base largely of young, male voters excited about his anti-establishment rhetoric and older Argentines desperate for change.

Massa, who presides as minister over a shambolic economy with 138 per cent inflation and a plunging peso spent much of his campaign distancing himself from the country’s unpopular current president Alberto Fernández, a fellow Peronist. Currency reserves have been depleted trying to support the tumbling peso .

Massa has pitched himself as a unity candidate after the first-round vote, though he clearly represents the political establishment, and his promises are largely for more of the same economically. But Argentinians have looked over their shoulder at their big neighbour’s experience of Trumpism. And it seems they don’t like what they see.