There has been much discussion in recent days about the politics which led to the breakthrough that was the Belfast Agreement. The achievement of peace – which has broadly held over the subsequent 25 years – is the central achievement and one which must be sustained.
The agreement – and the ending of hostilities – also created a significant economic dividend. It was, perhaps, somewhat different than some expected at the time – the two economies have close links in some areas, but operate largely separately in others. But cross-border cooperation has grown, and this has accelerated after Brexit. And there have been clear benefit to the economies of Northern Ireland and the border counties of the Republic, even if both continue to lag behind the strong-performing regions south of the Border.
The huge surge of investment into the Republic in the past two decades was helped by peace on the island. And this has benefited Northern Ireland, too, even if the levels of investment here have not been as stellar.
The Windsor Framework – allowing free access for goods exporters from Northern Ireland to both the EU and UK markets – could attract new investment to Northern Ireland, a point likely to be underlined by US President Joe Biden during his visit this week. However, to really build on this , political stability is needed. Potential investors need to see that politicians in Stormont are committed to making the new arrangements work. Otherwise the opportunity may well be lost. For big investors, certainty counts for a lot.
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Northern Ireland could benefit from significant international goodwill to help leverage both foreign direct investment and funds to progress the vital work of upgrading infrastructure and boosting the provision of education. These are the vital building blocks to long-term economic success.
Work by IBEC and the CBI in Northern Ireland has pointed to the longer-term opportunities for the island economy,as outlined in Strand Two of the Belfast Agreement. The benefits of the open border on the island are already evident in annual trade approaching ¤10 billion and in the close links in many sectors, notably agribusiness and parts of manufacturing, as well as the single energy market and joint tourism promotion. Official estimates are that the population of the island will reach 8.8 million by the middle of the century – and on current trends this could easily reach 10 million. As well as a powerful exporting force, the island is a decent-sized consumer market.
The mutually-beneficial nature of these economic links mean they can grow and develop to an extent independently of politics and the debates on the future of the island. But political stability remains an essential ingredient in the mix necessary for economic success.