The Irish Times view on the Northern Ireland protocol: a reckless and dangerous plan

Next week is likely to see the publication of the British government’s legislative attempt unilaterally to “switch off” parts of the Northern Ireland protocol. It may well precipitate a trade war with the EU.

British prime minister Boris Johnson, whose authority has been diminished by his party’s confidence vote, is being squeezed between hardline Eurosceptics, notably the European Research Group (ERG), determined that the Bill should reflect Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) demands to scrap all or part of the protocol, and moderates concerned at the reputational damage that breaking treaty commitments would entail. The squeeze may jeopardise the Bill’s Commons passage ahead of further delay in the House of Lords.

The government has sought unconvincingly to finesse the latter concerns by assuring critics that Attorney General Suella Braverman has legal advice that its actions will not be illegal because it has the legal right to act to defend the Belfast Agreement, with which the protocol allegedly conflicts. The 1998 agreement, the advice says, has “primordial significance”. In effect it trumps the protocol, creating, it is claimed, a previously unknown, and deeply dubious, hierarchy of international agreements. Most lawyers do not see any conflict between the two treaties.

To procure that acceptable advice Braverman has, however, engaged in “opinion shopping”, bypassing traditional official legal advice sources, notably the usual first port of call First Treasury Counsel James Eadie, who might well have warned against the Bill. Many backbenchers and Cabinet members are not reassured. Eadie has been shown the advice but was asked specifically not to produce an opinion, a form of “consultation” that will satisfy few.

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At Wednesday’s cabinet Johnson also clashed with foreign minister Liz Truss over her attempt to toughen up the Bill by, among other measures, removing, apparently at the behest of the ERG and DUP, provisions giving ministers discretion over implementation of the override provisions in the Bill. The latter both want the Bill to have immediate effect, leaving negotiators no room to reach an agreement with the EU and no room for the government to backslide.

Johnson ordered the restoration of the Bill’s original provisions but it is not clear yet whether, in doing so, he will have restored the ministerial discretion. The DUP has been adamant that would make the Bill unacceptable and insufficient to warrant its participation in either the Northern Assembly or Executive.

Johnson’s weakened government still insists its purpose is to provide the basis for the restoration of power-sharing devolved government by assuaging unionist concerns, but its reckless strategy owes more to a preoccupation with placating the right in the Tory party’s internal wars.