THERE is no place for triumphalism at Leinster House these days. Not when the political parties are walking on egg shells over the content of the Divorce Bill and its tricky political implications.
Change is always difficult to manage. And when it becomes entangled with moral and religious issues, it takes on tee aspect of a minefield. Two divorce referendums have hammered home the message. And that is why extreme caution is now being exercised by politicians.
The Divorce Bill, which will be debated in the Dail next Thursday, represents the last salvo in a bad-tempered and divisive battle over whether the absolute ban on divorce should be removed from the Constitution.
The Government carried the November referendum by a whisker and it has no intention of gratuitously annoying that 49 per cent of the electorate which voted No.
Sensitivity to the mood of the electorate varies from party to party, depending on how supporters voted. Within Fianna Fail, the needle of the political pressure gauge is still stuck on red. It hovers in the danger zone within Fine Gael. And it drops back to safe levels within the Labour Party, the Progressive Democrats and Democratic Left.
Nobody wants to re-awaken the fundamentalist tiger. Two referendums over nine years and a seven-month long Supreme Court challenge to a marginal Yes vote has sated most appetites for confrontation. Des Hanafin has all but given up the struggle. But the party leaders are not dropping their guard.
Bertie Ahern is particularly sensitive to the situation. The man who would be Taoiseach cannot afford an outbreak of hostilities within Fianna Fail. The decision by the front bench to support a Yes vote in the referendum has still not been forgiven by some backbenchers. And they find vindication in the fact that party followers finally came down strongly in favour of a No vote.
According to Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls at the time, Fianna Fail voters solidly opposed the introduction of divorce by a ratio of 49 per cent to 38 per cent. A very slight majority - 44 per cent to 43 per cent - favoured change within Fine Gael. And there was a comfortable two-to-one margin in support of divorce within the Labour Party.
Of more immediate interest to the party leaders was the profile and geographic spread of the Yes vote. Sixty-six per cent under 34 voted for divorce, with the support level dropping back to 55 per cent in the 35- to 49-year-old age bracket.
By contrast, three-quarters of those over 65 years of age voted No. And a negative response of 57 per cent was returned in the 50- to 64-year-old age group.
Given that the notorious "floating vote", which elects governments and traumatises the political system, tends to cluster in the lower age bracket, there is food here for thought. And when age profile is linked to geographic location, politicians ignore the trend at their peril.
Dublin, the cockpit of all recent general elections, voted by a margin of two-to-one in favour of divorce. In the rest of the country, people rejected the proposition by a margin of 54 to 46 per cent.
When you overlap the Yes age profile with the Dublin vote, it is clear that a party which wishes to win the next general election must favour divorce.
Equally, the strong, more traditional vote in rural areas should not be needlessly antagonised. It's a delicate balancing act.
Fianna Fail set about it in style this week. A minimalist approach was adopted. The Divorce Bill was not even discussed at last Wednesday's meeting of the Parliamentary Party in order to avoid any disagreement. But it had already been decided not to oppose the legislation at Second Stage.
A similar, low-key approach was adopted by the other parties.
When the whips met to decide Dail business for next week it was agreed that the Divorce Bill should be debated on Thursday. Now the majority of rural TDs are anxious about only one thing on Thursday. And that is to get back to their constituencies as early as possible. So there is a chance that the Second Stage could be wrapped up in a day.
Just in case members are determined to parade their religious views or social concerns in public, provision has been made for the debate to spill over to the following Tuesday. And it could run right up to midnight.
The main concern of Dermot Ahern is that Fianna Fail TDs should feel free to contribute to the debate. The whip recognises the dangerous balance of forces which exist within the party and he is determined that opponents of the Bill should not be muzzled.
Rather than fight the battle of divorce all over again, Fianna Fail is anxious to move the debate along and to address the terms of the legislation. After all, the people and the Courts have already pronounced on the principle of the Bill.
That is why Michael Woods has, with the help of a small committee, devoted the past live weeks to drawing up amendments seeking to improve the Bill through the protection of children's rights, the provision of family mediation services, special aid for spouses and other matters.
Fianna Fail is anxious to emphasise that these changes are being proposed in a positive, rather than an obstructionist, manner. And they will be discussed in the civilised atmosphere of a committee, away from the hurly-burly of the Dail chamber.
A similar, if more emphatic, approach is being adopted by the Progressive Democrats on the Bill.
The opposition parties are likely to receive an indulgent hearing from Mervyn Taylor. For the Labour Party Minister has indicated a degree of flexibility on the Bill, subject to reasonable amendment. The fundamentals of the Bill will not be changed, however, because of an undertaking given to the public before the referendum, when the legislation was first published.
Progress must appear snail-like for the 80,000 people from broken marriages who find themselves in a legal no-man's land. But the Bill should become law by the autumn. And couples whose marriages have been irretrievably broken for four of the past five years will be given a second chance.
New relationships may begin to flower in late 1997. On the other side of a general election. In the meantime, the driving imperative of the Dail parties is not to antagonise the electorate.