The Arab summit in Cairo yesterday left open the door to a resumption of the Middle East peace process, despite the appalling violence of recent days and weeks. It must be admitted, however, that it looks perilously close to being finished. This was hinted at by the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Barak, who repeated that he wants to take "time out" from the process to assess whether it can or should continue. That has justifiably alarmed more dovish Israeli ministers. But they have precious little scope for initiative, given the quite disproportionate Israeli military response to Palestinian protests, however provocative they have been.
The summit condemned Israel's policies but did not advocate that diplomatic relations should be broken off. This was a victory for President Mubarak of Egypt, working with Jordanians, against calls for more radical action. Popular rage throughout the Middle Eastern region over recent events has profound implications for many of its regimes. Frustration over the outcome of the Sharm Al-Sheikh summit last week and now over the Arab League one could destabilise the entire region if the pattern of violence continues in the Israeli-occupied territories.
Mr Barak recognised this by welcoming the Mubarak line. Nevertheless, his call for "time out" is directly related to his own immediate political predicaments and very survival in power. His coalition has collapsed and has very little chance of being re-assembled. While he says he is still interested in a national unity government with the Likud leader, Gen Ariel Sharon, that could only be on the basis that the peace process is stopped or frozen. Gen Sharon says Mr Barak must choose between them. In an election both men would probably lose out to a new government led by the former Likud leader, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israeli leaders say the Palestinian leader, Mr Arafat, must likewise choose between negotiations and continuing violence. That assumes he is responsible for it and that he could survive politically by forcibly bringing it to an end. Both are very dubious propositions. The protests have taken on a momentum of their own, which has daily deepened. Such a dynamic could drive the region rapidly towards war. A national unity government in Israel could move in that direction - or towards radical security measures to isolate the Palestinian population on the West Bank in Gaza, which Mr Barak is seriously considering. The consequences for world security and economic well-being would be profound.
There are few influential outsiders with the capacity to deflect such a depressing scenario in the short to medium-term. The United States has done its best to mediate and contain events, but it has lost credibility as a result of its identification with Israel. The United Nations is well meaning but lacks resources. The European Union is still too ill-prepared and diverse in its foreign policy approach. If this dangerous situation is not to deteriorate further, it would be necessary for international as well as regional players to intensify their efforts to turn the Middle East away from such a confrontation.