The Scottish and Welsh electorates vote this week for devolved assemblies in a decisive break with established British constitutional practice. This is so, irrespective of the precise outcome of the voting. The very existence of these new structures represents a flowering of Scottish and Welsh identities, creating major opportunities for the development of improved relations with Ireland in coming years.
The campaigns have differed substantially in Scotland and Wales, reflecting the distinctive political arrangements which apply. The Scottish Parliament has legislative powers over a broad array of domestic affairs, leaving only broad economic policy, social security, defence and foreign policy to Westminster. There is a capacity to vary income tax by plus or minus three per cent from what Westminster decides. The parliament assumes control of well-established civil and administrative structures in Scotland at a time when there is a well-nigh universal appreciation of their distinctiveness and potential. Irrespective of who wins on Thursday this process of renewal will assert its own dynamic. It seems bound to irritate and surprise governments in London, as yet unaware or unconvinced that "devolution means letting go".
The Welsh National Assembly does not have legislative powers, but assumes a role of scrutinising the new Welsh executive, to which the Welsh Office's powers have been devolved. Reflecting its longer and deeper incorporation in British political life, Wales lacks the administrative and political distinctiveness so characteristic of Scotland. Its economic, cultural and political geography is much more fragmented. But the very process of institution-building, consequent on the assembly, seems bound to grow in coming years, presumably stimulated by comparisons with Scotland and turf wars with London. It would be a mistake to underestimate the achievements of the last three decades, which make the assembly and its executive seem like the natural inheritors of the Welsh Office's consolidating work - not least its admirable activity in restoring and developing the Welsh language.
Many commentators are astonished at the contrast between these new realities in Wales and Scotland and the apparent indifference with which such a veritable constitutional revolution has been received at the centre of British political power in London.
This is not the same thing as the "control freakery" such commentators have detected in New Labour's response to both election campaigns, undoubtedly real though this is. It extends rather to a deeper unawareness of the long term significance of these events. It may presage a very interesting response once the penny drops amongst political and administrative elites in London. Mr Blair's extraordinary commitment to the Northern Ireland peace process is still seen by these elites as a separate issue.
The perception of too much continuing control from London is a factor in both campaigns, but it will not necessarily play to the advantage of either the Scottish or Welsh nationalists. Proportional representation will ensure it finds expression through protest votes benefitting the Liberal Democrats, dissident Labour candidates, Conservatives and Greens as well as the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Ireland's political and economic successes in recent years have been a recurring theme in the campaigns. Whoever wins, the east-west bodies put in place by the Belfast Agreement should help to channel long-overdue improvements in relations between Wales, Scotland and Ireland.