ANALYSIS:The Taoiseach put loyalists in key positions and inexplicably demoted Mary Hanafin, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen acted true to form by bringing the minimum number of new faces into his Cabinet yesterday and dropping nobody. The only big surprise was his decision to demote Mary Hanafin, one of his most able Ministers. Even the much vaunted reconfiguration of government departments, which might have compensated for the absence of a major reshuffle of personnel, was remarkably tame.
There was a broad welcome across the political spectrum for the two newly promoted Cabinet Ministers, Pat Carey and Tony Killeen. Both are able and highly regarded, not only for their political skills but for their ability to behave decently in a very tough and demanding profession.
The Taoiseach’s decision to play it safe and drop nobody from the Cabinet or, for that matter, from his junior ministerial team, meant that the reshuffle came as something of a let down. Coming up to the three-year mark in office the reshuffle represented Cowen’s final chance to revamp his team and attempt to give his Government a new image in the run-up to the next general election. The minimal nature of the changes certainly won’t do that, although it is arguable that nothing he does now will change the public perception of the Coalition.
The Taoiseach’s decision to avoid dropping anybody was based on the safety-first principle of avoiding the creation of disaffected factions led by former ministers, but again it is debatable if that would make any great difference at this stage of the Government’s life.
One striking thing about the personnel moves in the Cabinet was the fact that the front rank of long-serving Fianna Fáil Ministers, such as Micheál Martin, Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey, who have served continuously since 1997, was left strictly alone and their departments remained intact. The same applied to Mary Harney, about whose future there had been some speculation. With the demise of the Progressive Democrats some Fianna Fáil TDs wanted the Taoiseach to reclaim the Department of Health for the party but he clearly values Harney’s contribution at Cabinet and had let it be known that she could remain if she wished.
The biggest changes came in the middle ranks with Tánaiste Mary Coughlan being moved from Enterprise to the Department of Education. Batt O’Keeffe went in the opposite direction with the department’s name being changed to Enterprise, Trade and Innovation.
Both Coughlan and O’Keeffe are close to Cowen and the swap was an astute way of dealing with the sustained criticism of Coughlan in her old department while moving her to a substantial portfolio and allowing her to preserve her dignity.
The other two Ministers who were moved went in opposite directions. Éamon Ó Cuív’s transfer to Social Welfare, now revamped as the Department of Social Protection is a step up for him but Mary Hanafin’s move to Tourism, Culture and Sport represents an unexpected demotion, despite the gloss the Taoiseach attempted to put on it in the Dáil by emphasising the importance of tourism in the economy. Why Hanafin has been downgraded is a mystery. She is one of the best Ministers in the Government with a combination of political skill, competence and communications ability that is in short supply. Her handling of two potential political time bombs, the social welfare cuts in last year’s budget and the changes in the pension system, was masterful. The only explanation for her demotion is that she is not regarded as a pal of the Taoiseach and that is hardly a sufficient reason.
In fact, one of the characteristics of the reshuffle was the way Cowen promoted loyalists into key positions. The promotion of John Curran to the post of Government Chief Whip fitted that pattern. The promotion involved the elevation of Wexford TD Seán Connick from the back benches where he has made a solid reputation. The fact that he is from the southeast helped, given the departure of Martin Cullen who represented the region at Government level.
If the Taoiseach put the emphasis on playing it safe with his changes to the Fianna Fáil team he opted for maximum stability in relations between the Coalition parties in his handling of the Greens. The party’s two Cabinet Ministers, John Gormley and Eamon Ryan, retained their portfolios unchanged but the big news was the agreement to give the Greens an extra junior minister.
While many in Fianna Fáil thought the Greens had a cheek to look for an extra junior minister, having pushed for a reduction in the overall number from 20 to 15 just a year ago, Cowen clearly decided that keeping them happy was critical for his Government’s survival and he conceded the extra position which meant that Ciarán Cuffe, as well as Mary White, could become a Minister of State.
Government sources maintained that this is actually a far more acceptable outcome than having to live with the implementation of the secret internal rotation agreement among the Greens, which would have seen Cuffe replacing John Gormley as Minister for the Environment. However, that does not make it palatable for Fianna Fáil backbenchers.
The combination of the Green gain and the tame nature of the reshuffle left many Government TDs feeling flat. Equally disappointing was the way talk about sweeping changes in departmental portfolios with the emphasis on jobs, economic planning and reform of the public service ended up in relatively minor administrative changes.
It was interesting that the Taoiseach has taken responsibility for public service reform into his own department. Some of his TDs saw that as a worrying signal that social partnership priorities will prevail and reform will be strangled at birth.
With massive decisions to be implemented in the weeks and months ahead on the banking system and the economy, the reshuffle is not exactly the new dawn many in the party had hoped for and the mood of trepidation about what will happen at the next election is growing by the day.