Cowen's rollercoaster ride from ecstasy to agony

INSIDE POLITICS: The only consolation for the Government is that the Opposition is not benefiting from its woes, writes Stephen…

INSIDE POLITICS:The only consolation for the Government is that the Opposition is not benefiting from its woes, writes Stephen Collins.

THE DÁIL session just ended was as dramatic as they come. It began with a change of Taoiseach and a Cabinet reshuffle but was quickly followed by a disastrous referendum defeat. Hot on the heels of that rebuff came confirmation of a frighteningly rapid deterioration in the economy that required the remedial spending cuts announced during the week.

Not since Dick Spring walked out of government in November 1994, bringing the first and only Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition to a spectacular end, has a Dáil session contained such incident. The two events are also comparable in that the main actors plunged from ecstasy to agony in the political blink of an eye.

Brian Cowen started the session in April as the Fianna Fáil leader designate and taoiseach in waiting. A triumphal return to his home in Offaly, after his unanimous endorsement by the parliamentary party, seemed to presage a new dawn for the Government, after a year mired in the complex saga of Bertie Ahern's personal finances.

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The new Taoiseach took over the reins of office on May 7th and announced his Cabinet reshuffle to widespread acclaim. Yet a little more than a month later he suffered a stunning rebuff by the electorate in the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and his Government has not recovered its equilibrium since.

Never did a summer break come at a more welcome time. In hindsight Bertie Ahern's long goodbye, culminating in his address to the United States Congress at the end of April, was a big mistake.

Cowen's long wait to move from the office of Tánaiste to that of Taoiseach meant that the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign got nothing like the attention it required.

By the time Cowen and his Ministers had settled into office, the referendum campaign was in its final weeks and the tide surging behind the No campaign was probably irreversible. Politically, the unforgivable aspect of the botched campaign was that the Government had received sufficient warning from the first Nice referendum defeat to know that it was always going to be a difficult one to win.

The amazing aspect of the whole thing was the truly dreadful campaign waged by Fianna Fáil. The party that can't seem to help winning general elections demonstrated, for the third time in the 21st century, that it doesn't know how to fight a referendum campaign. Even in the final week when it was clear that the Yes side had its back to the wall, the party simply failed to respond when Cowen tried to rally the troops.

The majority of Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators did very little and the party organisation hardly bothered to campaign at all. The result was that 40 per cent of declared Fianna Fáil supporters voted No and they actually comprised the largest component of the No vote. The failure to bring a decisive majority of his own party supporters with him cost Cowen the referendum.

The implications of the loss have created huge difficulties for Ireland in the EU but it is not clear at this stage how things will develop and when, or if, a new referendum will be held. The only certainty is that the country's standing and its ability to negotiate for its own citizens at EU level has suffered irreparable damage.

On the domestic scale, Cowen's authority was damaged at the worst possible moment - just as the economic storm clouds finally broke. The domestic economy had been heading for trouble for some time, due to the gross overheating of the construction sector on which growth had come to depend.

The conjunction of a range of international problems, particularly the banking crisis and the surge in oil prices, meant that the storm, when it broke, was savage in its intensity.

Ministers and public servants have been shocked by the speed with which everything has turned. The remedial action involving spending cuts announced during the week is probably just the first phase in a series of cuts. In the longer run, taxes may have to rise as well as borrowing. One way or another, it was all a dreadful comedown for the Taoiseach, after the joyous homecoming of just a few months ago.

Probably the only consolation for the Government is that there is no sign that the Opposition parties are benefiting from its time of woe.

The opinion polls during and after the referendum showed a slow but steady slide in the level of support for Fine Gael and the party leader, Enda Kenny, has come in for a stream of media criticism.

The really disappointing aspect of all this for Fine Gael is that the party had appeared to have climbed on to a new plateau of support of about 30 per cent after a good general election performance which delivered 20 extra seats, even if it did not deliver power. The slippage since then, with the Government being hit by one problem after another, has depressed spirits in the party.

There have been some subdued murmurings about whether Enda Kenny is capable of leading Fine Gael into office but judgment on that front has been suspended until after next year's local and European elections.

One of the few beacons of light has been the performance of the party's deputy leader and finance spokesman, Richard Bruton, whose sustained criticism of Cowen's economic and financial strategy over the past four years has been proved correct.

Bruton's mastery of his brief, and his considered approach to political debate, is a welcome contrast to the frenzied outpourings of some of his front bench colleagues. The economy is now at the centre of political debate and is likely to stay there and that should give Bruton a chance to really shine.

For the Labour Party, the good news has been the performance of the relatively new leader, Eamon Gilmore.

He manages to strike the right note on a consistent basis in his Dáil exchanges with the Taoiseach. He is able to put Cowen under pressure without sounding too negative or unpleasant. However, the party has a lot of work to do to make itself more relevant to the everyday concerns of ordinary citizens, rather than sectional interests.

The two smaller parties, the Greens and Sinn Féin, probably have more to feel happy about than anybody else in the Dáil.

The Greens have taken to office with a pragmatism that has taken even Fianna Fáil aback. The total reversal of policy in the EU referendum was just a case in point. The good news for the party is that it continues to do well in the polls and there has been little or no internal dissent over the compromises required by power.

After a dreadful general election, Sinn Féin has had the great consolation of the referendum victory.

It is the only party whose supporters are totally in tune with its leadership on the issue of Europe. The party can now go into the European and local elections with a much greater degree of optimism than it could have dared to possess only a few months ago, thanks to the No vote.