Have we passed the Point of No Return? This was the phrase used by Hugo Patterson, the spokesman for the Northern Ireland Electricity Service, on BBC Radio Ulster on May 28th, 1974. He was saying that a complete shutdown of power in Northern Ireland had already begun and could not be reversed.
It was this statement, marking the climax of the Ulster Workers' Council strike, which led to Brian Faulkner's resignation and the downfall of the first power-sharing executive. Comparisons have been drawn between Sunningdale and the Belfast Agreement, which faces another moment of crisis today. The accord has been described as "Sunningdale for Slow Learners" because it includes the same ingredients for a settlement - power-sharing in Northern Ireland and institutional links between Belfast and Dublin. The sneer has usually been directed at Sinn Fein - but in fact it serves to underline how far both communities travelled in the intervening years.
There has been loose talk this week that Northern Ireland is in danger of losing the best opportunity for peace in this generation and is facing into the abyss. But one has only to look back, in the most cursory way, at the situation that prevailed in 1974 to realise, with gratitude, how utterly things have changed.
The violence was at its height. The IRA was committed to securing British withdrawal from Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein had no effective political strategy. The unionist community was so deeply alienated by the Sunningdale proposals that the UWC strike of 1974, organised by loyalist paramilitaries, commanded widespread support among the Protestant middle class, including the civil service.
In May 1974, Northern Ireland was facing a crisis where food supplies were running short, there was no gas, the sewage system was threatened and the telephone network was on the verge of collapse as power ran low.
TODAY there is peace, albeit imperfect, on the streets. The political climate has been transformed. The republican movement has accepted the principle of consent and is committed to the political process. We may even see decommissioning, sooner rather than later.
The unionist political community has travelled an equal distance. An opinion poll of unionist voters in the Belfast News Letter last week registered widespread opposition to The Way Forward document, while it also showed an overwhelming majority of unionist voters in favour of powersharing - 84 per cent of Ulster Unionist supporters, 71 per cent among PUP/UDP, and 58 per cent approval among those who voted for the DUP.
In the debate of the past few weeks the issue of cross-Border bodies, which seemed at one time likely to wreck the Good Friday agreement, has hardly surfaced.
As with so much else, the unionist community has taken time to get used to the idea and now largely accepts that closer co-operation with this thriving State makes sense.
One could go on and on. The past 25 years have been bitter for both communities. At one level it seemed that for almost 20 years no progress was made. The violence continued. Politics consisted of one botched initiative after another, with failure adding to the sense of hopelessness. But at a deeper level the necessary shifts in attitude were taking place.
Some people would argue that what is on offer now could have been achieved in 1974 and that over 2,000 lives would have been saved. We will never know if that is true or not. What we can say is that the long and painful years of learning have helped to bring both communities to where we are today.
Last Monday night on Questions and Answers, Inez MacCormack, the incoming president of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, spoke movingly of how so called ordinary people have worked to forge understanding across the sectarian divide. It hasn't been easy, not at all. Often they have been frightened and mistrustful. But they have persevered and thus helped to create the sea-change in political attitudes in Northern Ireland.
At a time like this the whole process can look dreadfully fragile. Tony Blair issues dire warnings about the consequences of failure. The Taoiseach, who really should know better, seems to have caught the British Prime Minister's taste for the apocalyptic. In an article in this newspaper a couple of days ago, Mr Ahern wrote that what happens this week "could determine the future of Northern Ireland for a long time to come, for better or worse".
This is nonsense. It will be a marvellous and happy day for all the people of this island if it proves possible to set up a power-sharing executive, with the support of both communities in the North. But if it does not happen, then the two governments and the political parties will have to pick up the pieces and try again, probably a few weeks from now. That is what politics is about. There are lessons to be learnt from the experience of 1974. The most important is to remember what happened to Brian Faulkner. He tried to give leadership of a kind that involved taking risks, just as David Trimble is being urged to do this week. Faulkner was forced to resign as leader of his party after a humiliating defeat by the Ulster Unionist Council within days of the powersharing executive being set up. A brave man, he made the mistake of moving too fast for his own supporters.
DAVID Trimble has already warned that if he gambles this week and gets the gamble wrong, it could lead to the loss of the current leadership of the UUP. Mr Trimble was around in 1974, a supporter of William Craig in his efforts to defeat Sunning dale. It is often forgotten that Craig's own political career never recovered after he seemed tempted, under Merlyn Rees, to support a temporary power-sharing coalition.
Mr Trimble has shown skill in avoiding the mistakes of his predecessors. He knows there is no point in taking risks if he can't bring his own party with him, at least at this time. But equally, the Ulster Unionist leader knows that the political landscape in Northern Ireland has changed quite fundamentally since 1974. The community he represents is prepared to accept power-sharing and cross-Border bodies, ideas which precipitated a full-scale state of emergency in 1974.
Unionists are still deeply mistrustful of Sinn Fein and Mr Trimble needs more time, or better arguments, to persuade them that decommissioning will happen. The Ulster Unionist leader may play a cautious hand this week, but he knows we have passed a point of no return.
The gamble for peace may take a little longer than planned, but it will succeed.