IT WAS Tip O'Neill who remarked famously that "All politics is local". A committed Friend of Ireland, he would have understood the reaction in this island to President Bill Clinton's landslide victory.
At the US ambassador's splendid party in the Burlington Hotel on election night people were asking each other just one question - "Can he save the Peace Process?" That is a challenge which is going to require a positive response from a lot more people than the American President. But the news from Washington has already brought a sense almost of relief, that one of the main players who gave a firm sense of purpose to the search for peace in Northern Ireland is back in the White Rouse.
It is worth recalling now, when the situation in the North seems particularly uncertain, just how crucial the involvement of the United States was in bringing about the original IRA ceasefire, and how that changed irrevocably our hopes and expectations for the future.
Of course the interest of powerful Irish Americans like Senator Edward Kennedy and Tip O'Neill had long been engaged in the problems of Northern Ireland. But in the current phase of the search for peace, it is no exaggeration to say that without the active involvement of the United States there would have been no IRA announcement in 1994.
It was the pledge of American support which made it possible for Gerry Adams to convince the IRA that, whatever the vicissitudes of British and Irish domestic politics, it would be possible to achieve a just and inclusive settlement for both communities in Northern Ireland through political negotiations.
Many people worked to make the ceasefire happen. Irish Americans like Bruce Morrison and Niall O'Dowd, who brought a new energy and imagination to the political situation in the United States. Jean Kennedy Smith and her staff at the American embassy, who have been determined to keep all doors open and the dream of peace alive. Key presidential aides like Nancy Soderberg, who have sought to win the confidence of all shades of political opinion in Northern Ireland.
BUT, at the end of the day, it was President Clinton who had to take the political risks - granting a visa to Gerry Adams, persuading some of his closest supporters like Ron Brown and George Mitchell to become involved, being criticised as dangerously naive when the IRA ceasefire broke down.
In recent weeks, and particularly since the bombing of the British army's HQ in Lisburn, there has been growing pessimism and uncertainty. George Mitchell's commitment and the respect he commands across the board have kept the talks process alive, just about. Yet through the most gloomy days, when other parties have been tempted to write off the peace process as finished, the Clinton administration has been a consistently steadying influence.
Praise has been given where it is due - to the loyalist groups for their courage and restraint in resisting the temptation to be drawn back into the whirlwind of violence. The IRA has been condemned for its attacks in the most forthright terms, but the White House has resisted the easy option of blanket condemnation.
On the contrary, it has been made quite clear that Gerry Adams is still regarded in Washington as a leader who is committed to the search for peace. At the same time, every effort has been made to win the confidence of the unionists.
President Clinton's evenhanded commitment to Northern Ireland, the firm sense that a fair settlement can and must be achieved are likely to be very important in the weeks and months ahead. All the signs are that we are facing into a difficult and uncertain period in the North.
In the past week hopes have been raised by reports that Sinn Fein and the British government have been involved in negotiations on a form of words that would allow the party immediate entry to the talks process after an IRA ceasefire. It has been suggested that there could even be a new announcement of an end to all violence by Christmas.
LIKE all right thinking people, I hope and pray that these hopes may prove to be well founded. But it is extremely difficult to see how this will happen. Already the reports of a possible compromise between the demands of Sinn Fein and the insistence of the British government that any new IRA ceasefire must be rigorously tested have set alarm bells ringing in a number of quarters.
Grass roots republicans, ever watchful for a sell out by the leadership, are muttering about lack of consultation. Unionists point to the speeches of both John Major and Sir Patrick Mayhew since the Lisburn barracks bomb and say that Sinn Fein cannot be admitted to talks until the IRA has proved, over some considerable period, its commitment to the Mitchell principles.
The political arithmetic in Britain is now impossibly difficult. The death of the Conservative MP, Barry Porter, means that by the end of the year John Major may no longer have a majority in the House of Commons. Britain is in the grip of pre election fever but the Prime Minister will not want to go to the polls until the elusive "feel good factor" begins to be more widely felt by the voters.
This means that the political clout of the nine Ulster Unionist MPs in the House of Commons is something that minority parties usually only dream about. This was underlined by a report earlier this week in one London newspaper that the Conservative Chief Whip had had meetings with the leaders of all the minority parties. Most of them got about 15 minutes, but David Trimble was closeted with him for over an hour.
It may be that with John Major will summon sufficient determination and ingenuity to square this circle. He has demonstrated courage in the past in his handling of the peace process and might feel that he would like to give it his last, best shot before facing into almost certain defeat at the polls.
What is much more likely, though, is that the Conservative Party will not allow him to run the risk of an all out confrontation with the unionists, something that would be inevitable if he were to make the concessions necessary to bring Sinn Fein into the talks.
In that case what we are facing into is a period of debilitating attrition, with no immediate prospect of an IRA ceasefire and Sinn Fein excluded from the talks. The most important priority then will be, somehow, to maintain confidence in the possibility of "inclusive negotiated settlement", thus hopefully preventing an escalation in the IRA's campaign that would precipitate a return to full scale violence.
It is here, it seems to me, that the role of President Clinton could be critically important. Jean Kennedy Smith has already told us that the President remains committed to the search for peace in Northern Ireland. That in itself must help to keep hope alive.