IF CHINA is to become a credible partner in the world’s battle against climate change it will have to become convinced that this is in its own material and national interest. A report from the Academy of Agricultural Sciences there underlines how vulnerable its poorest people will be to events like flooding, landslides, droughts and soil erosion and how this could undermine its economic growth. Facts like these should help persuade its leaders to take the issue much more seriously.
Already China has become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. This is not surprising given its huge population, rapid industrialisation and modernisation and great appetite for coal-based energy. What is not so well known is that China has only one-fifth the carbon output per capita of the United States, that already it has the second largest investment in renewables and is about to pass out the US in that respect. China’s fuel efficiency standards for cars are considerably more stringent than those of the US, in an effort to make it a global leader in producing new battery-powered and green vehicles.
Thus there is already a widespread awareness that by tackling environmental challenges head on China can position itself for a later global leadership role. The immense domestic economic stimulus package it has recently adopted can fruitfully be geared to just such an objective, for example by elevating bridges and roads prone to flooding. The report on climate change and the poor makes it clear that the rural areas where they predominantly live will be most exposed to these threats, as will 70 per cent of cities and an estimated 50 per cent of its overall population.
A key assumption made by US critics of China’s climate change policies during the Bush administration was that it refused to commit to clean energy in order to expand its economy. The US Congress used this to justify its own inaction. The Obama administration has now signalled a major policy shift on this question by floating the idea that the Kyoto Protocol due for a major review in Copenhagen next December should be replaced by a new treaty. This would allow China to become a much larger player in global environmental politics. But it would require the US to move first within the Kyoto framework. Mr Obama’s officials now suggest that China and other emergent economies would demonstrate their good faith by taking resolute action alongside cuts by developed states. This more hopeful scenario is now beginning to look more possible.