IN SOCCER they talk of a game of two halves. In politics, however, although electoral “terms” may have two halves in a strictly mathematical sense, in truth most scoring opportunities come in the first. From then on the iron logic of re-election of party and leader begin to change the dynamics of the game. In the US commentators speak of the crucial first 100 days and President Barack Obama’s “legacy” is already being assessed. In Britain, Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been dogged since taking over by talk of lame-duck end-of-term blues.
In France, as President Nicolas Sarkozy hits his half-term mark, and mutters about the “mid-term curse”, already his UMP party is thinking ahead to difficult regional elections next year, and by 2011 will be completely preoccupied with his re-election. Few far-reaching economic or welfare reforms – apart from the major challenge of pensions – are scheduled for the next two years and Mr Sarkozy is currently faced with a sizeable rebellion in the parliamentary party that is jeopardising attempts to reform a local business tax.
His popularity rating, according to a survey for Paris Match magazine, has fallen to 39 per cent, the lowest since he took office. It was not helped by apparent nepotism, involving two sons, and his most recent gaffe, what might be termed his “GPO moment”, the claim that he was present when the Berlin Wall fell. The president, who has acquired a reputation for being autocratic, not least in his dealings with the press, may however take some comfort from the fact that, faute de mieux, with the Socialist Party bitterly divided, he remains the country’s most popular politician.
Yet Mr Sarkozy’s achievement so far has been notable. A great communicator who has restored French standing with Washington, and in the EU, not least during a vigorous presidency last year, he has also brought France back fully into the Nato command. Promising major market-driven structural reform of the economy and reductions in the role of France’s huge state sector, he started out enthusiastically, neutering 35-hour week legislation, introducing standards guarantees on train services, reforms in higher education, and cutbacks in public service numbers.
But then, critics say, he stopped and the pragmatic interventionist at the heart of all French politicians reasserted itself as the global crisis bore down on the country. An effective stimulus plan and bank and car bailouts ensured its effects have been less severe in France than in the rest of Europe – it has suffered a contraction of less than 2.25 per cent largely because of a less exposed banking system. But, because of the extent of state social transfers – 35 per cent of GDP – and the welfare safety net, anathema to Mr Sarkozy, consumption was sustained and the working population largely cushioned against the downturn. Post-crisis recovery, however, poses a real challenge for the second half of his term. Can Mr Sarkozy reinvent himself as the fearless champion of economic reform that got him elected and really get to grips with a budget deficit running at an unsustainable 8 per cent?