Britain and the euro

In Britain, it is the issue which will not go away

In Britain, it is the issue which will not go away. The euro is now back at the centre of political debate, despite the desire of Mr Blair's government that it should not become a central issue in the next general election. Last week a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) argued that the British economy was converging with the euro zone in terms of growth and interest rates - a point apparently echoed by the Treasury in Whitehall. This has again raised the prospect of a referendum on euro entry early in the lifetime of the next parliament and has reignited debate on the issue.

Unfortunately for Mr Blair, Britain remains deeply divided on the future of sterling. Yesterday, a leading trade unionist, Mr Ken Jackson of the Amalgamated Engineering and Electric Union, urged Labour to clarify its support for entry. This pro-euro view has support in the cabinet from powerful figures such as Mr Robin Cook, the foreign secretary and Mr Stephen Byers, the trade secretary.

However the chancellor of the exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, remains cautious. And to date, Mr Blair has seemed to want to put the issue on ice until after the next election, fearing that the Conservatives will try to capitalise on public opposition.

Business in Britain is also divided. There is a strong body of support for those who argue that British business would be disadvantaged by remaining outside the euro zone and, crucially, that doing so would discourage inward investment. However, there is also substantial backing for the contrary view, based on the argument that the advantages of entry would be more than outweighed by the loss of an independent monetary policy.

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The debate is of considerable interest on this side of the Irish Sea. British entry to the euro zone would help Irish businesses who trade there and would remove the existing currency border between North and South. It would also remove one potential cause of economic instability for the Republic - already we have seen how the fall of the euro against sterling has fed through into higher import prices and a rising rate of inflation.

For the moment, it seems unlikely that the British government will give a strong lead on the issue, although an article by Mr Blair in today's Financial Times strikes a positive note. And the annual speech by Mr Brown at the Mansion House this Thursday will be closely watched for further signals. It is now clear that the euro will be an issue in the next election and the Blair government will be continually pushed to articulate its position more clearly.

Realistically, mid to late 2002 is the earliest that a referendum is likely to be held on membership and a decision to postpone the issue further cannot be ruled out. This means that sterling would not actually enter the euro until 2004 to 2005 at the earliest, later than had been expected when the Republic signed up.

If Britain is clearly heading towards membership, then sterling would align itself with its likely entry rate of somewhere under three deutschmarks. However, for as long as uncertainty remains, sterling and the euro will continue to swing in value against each other, creating unwelcome uncertainty for the Republic's economy as a member of the euro zone.