Big turnout needed to put fair wind in sail of accord

Some powerful persuaders have been drafted to win support for the Belfast Agreement in the referendum in two weeks' time

Some powerful persuaders have been drafted to win support for the Belfast Agreement in the referendum in two weeks' time. Saatchi and Saatchi, which masterminded New Labour's advertising campaign in the last British general election, is giving its services free to the recently-launched Yes campaign.

A spokeswoman for the campaign said the company had been happy to offer its services "pro bono publico". In Fianna Fail's commercial, Brian Kennedy's voice lingers on the blessings of peace and urges "Don't Let Go".

Tony Blair and John Major were in Belfast yesterday to preach the same message. There will be more high-powered political visits in the coming days. It's an impressive show of cross-party unity, designed to spell out a hard reality to those in Northern Ireland who oppose the agreement, that they need expect no comfort from any mainstream political group in the rest of the United Kingdom.

Now that it's running smoothly, everyone wants to be seen to be part of the Peace Train. Tony Blair's party political broadcast on Tuesday night, when Bertie Ahern was shown as a vote-getter for New Labour, illustrated this very graphically.

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How much effect (and more to the point, what effect) this will have on Northern Ireland's voters is anybody's guess. Those who incline to the No camp are as paranoid and prickly about British politicians as they are about perceived interference from this State and do not take kindly to being told how they should vote.

That is why it was decided that President Clinton should not visit the North in the run-up to the referendum. He was advised that unionists would see his visit as part of a campaign orchestrated by the pan-nationalist front and that Dr Paisley would make hay of the occasion. There are others who think that this would have been a risk worth taking. Bertie Ahern in particular is known to have argued that a visit by President Clinton - and all the emotional razzamatazz surrounding it - would create a much-needed air of excitement around the referendums and thus increase the vote. The Taoiseach and his advisers are still worried about the impact of a low turnout, even if the Yes vote is carried.

Despite the optimistic messages of the opinion polls, which show a solid majority in favour of the Belfast Agreement, the campaign has, so far, been lacklustre. There are obvious dangers in this. The first is that supporters of the deal will be lulled into a sense of false security and will not turn out to vote. They are, anyway, likely to be less highly motivated than those in the No camp who feel very strongly that the accord is a disaster.

Many unionists feel quite sincerely, even with regret, that the agreement is morally unacceptable because it involves jettisoning long-held principles on such issues as the release of prisoners, decommissioning, bringing former terrorists into government. Some republicans feel, equally strongly, that it betrays rights to national sovereignty for which generations of Irish men and women have died.

When one says to either of these groups that the agreement offers the best hope of peace, they respond that peace at any price is not acceptable and that, anyway, it will not last.

It is true that many people who support the accord do so for just this reason, that they hope it will bring peace. They know that the agreement is fraught with uncertainty and that it fudges many difficult issues, but they hope against hope that the politicians will be able to take it forward.

But people need to be told, with the greatest urgency, that their vote is necessary to put a fair wind in its sails. This is because a low turnout, even if it results in a victory for the Yes campaign, will be interpreted as demonstrating less than wholehearted support for the accord from the start.

In the North, it will be said that the agreement was endorsed by only a minority of the unionist community, which could seriously undermine the authority of David Trimble and other moderate unionist leaders in the Assembly elections. Equally, a low turnout in the Republic will send a negative message about this State's commitment to steering the agreement through all the stormy waters that lie ahead.

We were told, at the time of high emotion which followed the announcement of the Good Friday agreement, that the battle to win a Yes vote would be fought with all the intensity of an election campaign. There would be one crucial difference: because all the major parties in this State would be in agreement on the need for peace after 30 years of bitter conflict, there might be some co-ordination of strategies and resources.

It might not include Bertie Ahern and John Bruton canvassing together, but there would be co-operation designed to maximise the size of the Yes vote.

So far there has been little sign of anything resembling the intensity of an election campaign, let alone any pooling of resources which might mean, for example, that each household could expect some literature or a personal call from a party representative to explain the importance of voting on May 22nd. There has been an impressive show of Bertie Ahern as peacemaker on the billboards but, as yet, very little else of an official nature.

One friend told me of seeing carefully coloured signs in the windows of national schools bearing the slogan "We want peace" but this - though touching - hardly counts as part of an official election campaign. I have checked with Southern colleagues and only one has yet received a copy of the Belfast Agreement; we were told it would be delivered to each home. This is the more marked because, like others, I have received literature from both sides explaining the importance of the Amsterdam treaty and why I should vote for or against it.

It would be sad if the hope and euphoria which followed the announcement of the Belfast Agreement in Holy Week were dissipated to any extent by a low turnout on May 22nd. We applauded, with tears in our eyes, knowing that the accord was the result of quite extraordinary commitment and courage by politicians, who had shown themselves determined to find a way out of the violence, suffering and grief of the past 30 years.

But politicians need to know that the public is firmly behind them, wants them to carry through on the policies they have started. The best way to do that is through the ballot box. There was a 76 per cent turnout for the referendum on the 1937 Constitution, though admittedly de Valera called an election for the same day and this increased the poll. We should be able to match that figure or, hopefully, surpass it.