IT IS far easier to get re-elected to the European Parliament than to win a seat for the first time. Incumbents and former MEPs possess an obvious advantage. They enjoy a higher public profile, and they have five years to establish a record of achievement as an MEP in Brussels. Once again the findings in the latest Irish Times/TNSmrbi poll seem to bear this out.
A week before polling day, a majority of outgoing MEPs can now be reasonably confident about retaining their seats. A minority – Eoin Ryan (Fianna Fáil), Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin) and Kathy Sinnott (Independent) – have some reason to worry about their re-election prospects. The figures are derived from sample ballot papers among a quota sample of 2,000, rather than 1,000, electors in the normal opinion poll. The results indicate a close battle for the final seat in three constituencies. The last poll a fortnight ago was taken after candidate nominations had closed but before serious campaigning had begun. Since then, two weeks of animated debate and vigorous canvassing have not greatly altered the state of political opinion.
The poll findings indicate that a European election is again being fought on domestic issues. For Fianna Fáil, the electoral contest occurs at mid-term for a deeply unpopular Government. Fianna Fáil will struggle to retain its four seats, as Ireland’s national representation has been cut from 13 to 12 seats. Fine Gael, despite its strong overall national poll ratings, could lose a seat in East. Labour could emerge as the real election winner: it is likely to retain its seat in Dublin and may, via Nessa Childers, win a seat in East.
In three-seat constituencies, only parties that can secure close to a quota (25 per cent of the vote) are assured of victory. The high vote threshold makes it more difficult for Independents and small parties to succeed but Joe Higgins has gained momentum and has an outside chance of winning the last seat in Dublin.
Particular national, and international, interest will centre on the North West constituency. There, Libertas founder Declan Ganley still remains well short of the required vote to win a seat. The polls would indicate that he has failed to generate a momentum over the past two weeks. His failure to win a seat could have implications for the rerun of the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty later this year.
This poll is interesting but, as Fianna Fáil would say, there is a week to go before the real votes are cast.