With about 100 people killed in two successive days' suicide bombs in Iraq, it is clear there is no let up in the violent resistance to the US-led occupation forces. These attacks have concentrated on Iraqi civilians queuing to join the newly established police and armed forces. It is a horrifying spectacle, illustrating the contradictions and complexities of this post-war occupation.
These attacks could also represent a new escalation of the campaign against the occupation forces, according to information released this week in Baghdad. A captured memo suggests a possible link between the suicide bombers and al-Qaeda, based on a plan to disrupt any handover of sovereignty to Iraqis in the summer by provoking a civil war between the majority Shia community and the minority Sunnis who were closer to the centre of power in successive Iraqi regimes. While this suggestion is unproven - and is inherently to be suspected - some such factor may be needed to explain these new tactics of violent resistance.
They come just as the special United Nations team sent to advise on whether conditions are right to hold elections has begun its work. Much hangs on its report. It has a legitimacy acceptable to contending groups in Iraq, including Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the active and vocal leader of the Shia community who has demanded elections be held before the US hands over sovereignty. He might be willing to accept the UN team's advice to postpone them. But if so he and others will want to bargain hard on the proposed US alternative - caucus elections in Iraq's administrative regions which are suspected to favour pro-American groups.
There are also complex issues at stake about whether the proposed transfers of sovereignty, including privatisation of Iraqi public property, are legal prior to the appointment of a democratically elected government. Many Iraqis are rightly concerned that an indirectly selected government appointed before elections would continue to rely on the US-led coalition. Some among them are willing to resist that prospect violently.
There are welcome signs that France, Germany and other European powers are ready to take up a greater military and political role in Iraq. They should insist that this is done through a new United Nations mandate to endorse a more legitimate transition authority and set out a timetable for a full transfer of sovereignty back to Iraqis. The US-led coalition's efforts to rebuild the Iraqi armed forces, police and public administration would stand a greater chance of succeeding if its members accept such a course of action.