The importance of the Taoiseach's statement on Northern Ireland that the constitutional question has been settled and that there is no workable alternative to the Belfast Agreement should not be underestimated. Public assertions of that kind are a powerful antidote to loyalist fears, while providing a reality check for republicans
They create a climate in which political progress may be made. And, at this time of direct rule, it is important that the focus remains on the Belfast Agreement and on its carefully balanced constitutional framework that emphasises political consent.
Efforts by Sinn Féin to secure speaking rights for its MPs in the Dáil and to move the issue of Irish unity centre stage there, reflect a more traditional approach and suggest the party believes significant electoral gains can be made in the South. That may well happen in the aftermath of the IRA's decommissioning of weapons. But uncertainties, on both sides of the Border, about the behaviour and intentions of the IRA are unlikely to be resolved until after the Independent Monitoring Commission reports next January.
In the meantime, the potential exists for rising, inter-communal friction in the North. Legislation dealing with "on the runs" is due to be circulated by the British government within a matter of weeks and is certain to antagonise the unionist community. At much the same time, Secretary of State, Peter Hain, is expected to provide details of community restorative justice schemes. These will be carefully scrutinised by both unionist and nationalist politicians lest they facilitate paramilitary influence over communities, without adequate control being exerted by the Police Service of Northern Ireland.
At a time when many loyalists are deeply suspicious of authority; reject IRA decommissioning as bogus and believe too many concessions have been made to nationalists, the two governments should step lightly. Loyalist alienation was measured in bloody street violence last September and could recur. There are, however, some positive signs. Last weekend's decision by the LVF to disband may reflect a changing paramilitary situation following IRA decommissioning. A statement of intent is expected from the UVF later this month that may advance the situation.
The DUP and the UUP should use whatever influence they have in loyalist communities to encourage paramilitary disbandment and decommissioning. For the greatest long-term threat to a prosperous and peaceful Northern Ireland lies in organised crime, which is largely controlled by paramilitary organisations. For so long as they operate, communities will be intimidated. Random sectarian murders will take place. And families, like the Ludlows of Louth, may suffer fatal loss and administrative injustice. As the Taoiseach made clear: the Belfast Agreement, offering peace, power-sharing, constitutional certainty, cross-Border institutions and parity of esteem, is the only way forward at this time.