THE SHATTERING of Fianna Fáil’s hegemony in Irish political life has been the most striking feature of the past year but some of the key reasons for that – the collapse of the banking and building sectors, falling living standards, rising unemployment and a failure to call those responsible to account – continue to challenge the cohesion and capabilities of the Fine Gael/ Labour Party Government. Fianna Fáil’s tumble from power was slow but spectacular, beginning with defeat in the local elections of 2009 and culminating in Brian Cowen’s pre-election resignation and the subsequent loss of 58 Dáil seats.
It was a long and soul-destroying road for a party that had dominated Irish politics for more than 80 years. Now, down to 20 Dáil seats, it is fighting for its very existence. It is under immense pressure from a Sinn Féin organisation that increased its representation from four to 14 TDs and had party leader Gerry Adams elected in Louth. There is some residual support for Fianna Fáil. This was evident during the presidential election campaign when Seán Gallagher became the party’s unofficial standard-bearer and arising from a strong performance in the Dublin West byelection. Traditional voting reflexes can only be effectively exploited, however, if Micheál Martin can distance the party from its record of sleaze and political mismanagement.
Fine Gael may have replaced Fianna Fáil as the dominant political force but its foundations are shallow and prone to subsidence. This was graphically displayed in the Dublin West by-election when its candidate came in fourth. The outcome was even worse in the presidential election when Gay Mitchell came a poor fifth.
The Labour Party’s ambition to become the largest Dáil party did not appeal to the electorate. In spite of that, it made significant progress and won 37 seats, its best ever performance. The party went on to secure the Presidency and the Dublin West byelection. Michael D Higgins became a popular President with more than a million votes, but it was an achievement that owed much to Sinn Féin’s televised “ambush” of Seán Gallagher. Pressures posed by an overwhelming Dáil majority and financial cutbacks saw its byelection winner Patrick Nulty forfeit the party whip and join his colleague Willie Penrose and Fine Gael’s Denis Naughten of Fine Gael in the dissidents’ enclosure.
In spite of such distractions, the Government – and Taoiseach Enda Kenny in particular – enjoyed something of a honeymoon period on the diplomatic front. The first official visit to the State by a British monarch helped to lay the ghosts of old grievances and drew attention to the political progress being made in Northern Ireland through a power-sharing Executive dominated by the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin. People, Queen Elizabeth suggested, should bow to the past but not be bound by it. A hurried visit by President Obama of the United States added to the early summer feelgood atmosphere. But publication of the Cloyne report on clerical sexual abuse brought confrontation with the Vatican and a recasting of Ireland’s relationship with the Holy See. Mr Kenny’s ringing Dáil declaration that the laws of the State – rather than canon law – would henceforth apply to all such issues brought general public approval. Diplomatic differences eventually led to closure of the Vatican embassy, although the official reason given was costs.
The incoming Government failed in its initial efforts to renegotiate the terms of the EU-IMF bailout. Then, almost as a sop, it was granted a reduction in interest repayments. Irish Ministers discovered how little influence they had in Europe because of past arrogance and their current, reduced circumstances.
A blizzard of economic and fiscal uncertainty makes it difficult to plan ahead and threatens long-term austerity. Into that confused situation, the Government dropped a recovery plan and its first budget. The plan reflected original commitments agreed with the Troika and disappointed a great many in its ambition. It was a far cry from Fine Gael’s five-point plan with its undertaking to create 100,000 jobs through a €7 billion investment programme. Since then, estimates for growth have been revised downwards as exports slow and recession takes hold in Europe. At the same time, long-term unemployment is rising.
The budget sought to keep taxes low and maintain the Croke Park agreement. It gave the impression of protecting the better-off at a time when nobody was being held to account for the disasters that overtook the banking, building and regulatory sectors. In those circumstances, it can only be regarded as extraordinary that Opposition parties have identified a new €100 household tax as their main budgetary concern.
Winning the general election may have been the easy part for the Government parties. Repairing the economy and underpinning it with innovation across all sectors while engaging in necessary political reforms will test their mettle. A constitutional convention will consider a range of matters in 2012. Top of the agenda will be reform of the electoral system, involving proportional representation and multi-seat constituencies. Parochialism and clientelism have rotted the notion of civic morality in political life, encouraging bias and dishonesty and damaging the national interest. In the current state of political, economic and social flux, the electorate is looking for strong leadership and a degree of certainty. In that context, a referendum to abolish the Seanad is almost a distraction, and risks defeat if reforms are not far-reaching. If those directly responsible for the economic crisis cannot be held to account under the law, they should at least be removed from their elevated, well-paid positions.