THE PRECARIOUSNESS of yesterday’s apparent ceasefire in Syria was explicitly acknowledged on all sides. A willingness to hold fire was qualified by both government and opposition statements expressing their determination to resume fighting if the other side breached the ceasefire and de rigeur expressions of disbelief in the good faith of the other.
Heavy weapons, snipers, and checkpoints remained in place, however, in defiance of the Kofi Annan-brokered agreement, as he confirmed to the UN Security Council yesterday. Streets in troubled towns remained nervously empty. The truce was not universal, there were reports of a scattering of infractions, a couple of bombings, some arrests of government opponents. The interior ministry futilely urged rebels to surrender, promising to free those who had not killed. And the opposition in exile warned the regime’s good faith would again be tested today if crowds responded to its call for renewed demonstrations. It fears they will be put down forcibly.
The truce, supposedly accompanied by troop and heavy weapons withdrawals, is only the first tentative step in the implementation of the UN-backed six-point plan proposed by the organisation’s former secretary general, who is serving as the joint Arab League-UN envoy, and which is endorsed not only by Syria itself, at least notionally, but also by the league, the US and EU, China and Russia. The latter remains, however, determinedly opposed to any ramping up of sanctions by the security council where it is under continuing pressure to drop its veto, amid concern that without the threat of further economic sanctions there is precious little leverage available to the international community on the Assad regime.
The six-point plan remains the best hope for stabilisation of the situation, despite widespread fears that Assad is simply playing for time and has little intention of implementing all its elements. It includes a ceasefire, humanitarian and media access, the release of prisoners and a Syrian-led political process for transition to a democratic future. Crucially, immediately, it also involves Item 2, the deployment of UN observers to supervise a truce, and Annan yesterday reportedly urged the Security Council to act quickly in that regard. It must do so with a robust mission that is not, as the last one was, seriously circumscribed by the regime.
The tentative ceasefire comes as a relief to neighbouring states where tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled, many to growing camps. Some 24,000 are estimated to have crossed the border to Turkey, 95,000, to Jordan, and more than 8,000, to Lebanon.
Their presence in growing numbers is deeply destabilising. And Turkey has formally notified the UN of the woundings of five people, including two Turkish officials, by Syrian troops shooting across the border earlier this week. Prime minister Tayyip Erdogan warned it would take unspecified measures if its sovereignty was again violated.
The risk of a serious clash between these two heavily armed neighbours should not be underestimated.