Yeltsin thinks electorate wants Chechens crushed

PRESIDENT Boris Yeltsin's strong criticism of Turkey's handling of the hostage crisis on the Black Sea ferry Avrasia and his dark hints that Russia might take its own action on the approaches to the Bosphorus may have ruffled feathers in Ankara and caused alarm in the western alliance.

But the message was clearly directed not at Turkey but to the Russian electorate, which will decide on the presidency in June.

There seems little doubt now that Mr Yeltsin will run for a second term, but his platform will have changed significantly from the democratic rallying cry he issued in 1991.

On this occasion, all the signs are that he will model his campaign on hard line positions such as those held by the ultra right winger, Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and the Nationalist leader, Gen Alexandra Lebed.

First and foremost will be a policy of military rather than political settlement in Chechnya in the hope that this course will rebuild a popularity which has been eroded almost to the point of collapse.

The Communist, ultra nationalist victory in last month's elections to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, have reinforced the view that tough stances right across the board are more likely to be successful electorally than a softer, more democratic line.

Observers here point to the experience of the Prime Minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, who was perceived as something of a hero when he solved the host age taking crisis in the city of Budynnovsk last June.

For his action, which prevented loss of life on the scale experienced in Pervomayskoye this week, Mr Chernomyrdin was roundly praised by the media, Russian intellectuals and politicians from the democratic side of the fence.

However, when he went to the country in December, Mr Chernomyrdin's support among the general public reached little over 9 per cent.

This has been taken as a sign that perhaps a majority in Russia would like to see the Chechens crushed, rather than spoken to.

There was an echo of all this yesterday in the Duma when the liberal deputy, Mr Sergei Yushenkov, proposed a debate on the Pervomayskoye operation.

Mr Yushenkov, a close ally of the country's leading human rights activist, Mr Sergei Kovalyov, fell 70 votes short of the number needed to get his motion debated.

The official accounts of the operation were untrue, he said, and he wanted the prosecutor general of Russia, the heads of the Interior and Security Forces, as well as members of the National Security Council to be brought before parliamentary hearings.

This move failed, and now Mr Yushenkov and his colleagues in the Democratic Choice party headed by the former prime minister, Mr Yegor Gaidar, will attempt to open criminal proceedings against those who organised the operation.

All in all, it has been an extremely bad week for Mr Yeltsin, much as he would like to put a brave face on it.

He has claimed a major success in Pervomayskoye, but little by little the news leaking out of Dagestan appears to suggest that many more hostages were killed and many more hostage takers had escaped than the authorities have been prepared to admit.

Giving the impression of strength in dealing with terrorists is one thing, but failing in military operations is another, and in the long run these failures are more likely to construct an image for Mr Yeltsin of weakness rather than power.

There was some good news, however, for the President yesterday when Moscow's popular mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, announced that he would be throwing his weight behind Mr Yeltsin in the election campaign.

Reuter reports President Yeltsin defended the bloody military operation to crush Chechen rebels and vowed that separatist bases in Chechnya would be resolutely wiped out. Asked if a big drive would now be launched against them inside Chechnya, he replied. "We'll do it quietly, quietly."

Speaking in Moscow before the ferry crisis came to an end in Turkey, Mr Yeltsin raised the possibility that Russia would launch its own operation there.

He shrugged off media criticism that the huge Russian force used to pound guerrilla bases in Pervomaiskoye had been unnecessary. "The operation was planned and carried out correctly," Mr Yeltsin told a Kremlin news conference after a Commonwealth of Independent States summit.

Russia finished the body count yesterday after the assault on Pervomaiskoye ended a 10 day rebel hostage saga, but nearly half the Lone Wolf guerrillas appeared to have escaped.

Nearly all the village's 300 houses were destroyed, with some still smouldering and others with two metre shell holes punched in the walls, eyewitnesses said.

Russian sappers moved in to hunt for unexploded shells. Most corpses had been cleared away. Dead cattle lay bloated.

"The terrorists are guilty. We should treat them with terror. What else can there be?" said Mr Izrayel Izakov, head of the local farmers' co operative.

Casualty figures were contradictory, with Interfax news agency quoting regional officials as saying that 160 rebel corpses had been found and 11 had been taken alive. Mr Yeltsin said 153 rebels had been killed and 30 captured out of a force of 300.

But unconfirmed reports said the guerrilla leader, Mr Salman Raduyev, had eluded Russian troops moving in on the village in Dagestan and had slipped over the border into Chechnya.