Eastern states favour US stance on Ukraine

Poland has indicated it is willing to back the US on supplying defensive arms to Ukraine should today's planned talks with Russia in Minsk fail to bring a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict.

The White House has agreed to wait for the outcome of Franco-German diplomatic efforts before deciding on the arms issue. But, should a more robust US approach come, Warsaw and the Baltic capitals have already flagged their interest in following suit – opening a potential gap in the EU's approach to Russia at Thursday's informal EU summit.

"It is in our interest that peace reigns in eastern Ukraine and that the talks lead to a ceasefire," said Tomasz Siemoniak, Polish defence minister, on national radio. He ruled out supplying heavy weaponry to Kiev but backed defensive weapons deliveries to Kiev as a "final measure".

On Saturday, Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out military assistance to Kiev, saying she saw no situation in which this would prompt Russian president Vladimir Putin to back down. Diplomacy and further sanctions are Berlin's preferred tools.

Border insecurity

The tone is far more robust on the EU’s eastern border. Lithuanian

Dalia Grybauskaite

expressed the fear that the Baltics are next on Russia’s sights, citing historical experience and a “huge military concentration across the border” in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, between

Lithuania

and Poland.

Poland was very active early on in the Ukraine crisis but is wary of Putin’s intentions after, on his demand, it was sidelined from the Ukraine crisis diplomacy.

The Poles and Baltic countries say they have confidence in Merkel's ability to negotiate with Putin on the EU's behalf. Though she grew up on the same side of the Iron Curtain as they did, some are concerned that her perspective on Moscow is still different to theirs – in Russia's shadow.

Foreign minister Edgar Rinkevics of Latvia, which holds the rotating EU presidency, has warned his colleagues that not even a ceasefire would return EU-Russia relations to normal, given the ongoing annexation of Crimea.

His remark reflects a common fear over Ukraine in this part of Europe – that the EU will reach an arrangement with Moscow that legitimises Russia’s Crimea annexation and returns to “business as usual”.

"The Baltics are with Germany on the debt crisis but when it comes to security more with British and French, and see Germany as someone who could potentially betray their interests," said Eoin McNamara, researcher at the University of Tartu in Estonia (and fellow at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs).

“But to be outright Atlanticists on Ukraine, and say ‘we will support US on arming Kiev’, would be seen as damaging their long-term interest in EU foreign and security policy.”

Military assistance

Brussels officials stress that the EU is still a long way from a serious consideration of arming Ukraine, even in countries that traditionally take a foreign policy lead, like Britain, France and the Netherlands.

Last month's paper by EU high representative Federica Mogherini, appearing to promote a more conciliatory strategy of engagement with Russia, raised eyebrows in the eastern EU.

By contrast, European Council president Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister, has warned on Twitter that "appeasement encourages the aggressor to greater acts of violence. Time to step up our policy based on cold facts, not illusions."

While Poles and the Baltics are concerned by Mogherini’s tone in talks with Russia, they say her absence in Minsk speaks volumes about the state of the EU’s security policy.

Poland’s defence minister Tomasz Siemoniak spoke for Russia’s direct EU neighbours yesterday, warning that Moscow’s “low credibility” meant the EU should be thinking strategically, and beyond a resolution of the Ukraine crisis.

"This is not just about Ukraine but a much bigger game about the whole European security architecture," said Eugeniusz Smolar, a leading Polish foreign policy expert in Warsaw.

“European leaders don’t want to take responsibility for their own security, but now we need a new political will and a change of mood recognising that this is something we have to do.”