North Korean missile launch threatens regional balance

North Korea’s latest rocket launch could upset the geopolitical balance in East Asia as countries scrabble to defend themselves against Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambitions. The move has angered China as it means a greater military role for the US.

North Korea claimed it had put a satellite into orbit on Sunday, something which South Korea, Japan and the United States said was a cover for testing ballistic missile technology that could be used to deliver a nuclear weapon, miniaturised as a warhead.

One of the first reactions came from the South Korean capital Seoul, which indicated that it would begin formal talks with the US about deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile system to the Korean peninsula “at the earliest possible date”.

Previously, South Korea had kept this possibility quiet because its biggest trading partner China does not want THAAD, with its sophisticated radar technology, on its doorstep. Sunday’s ballistic missile test was pivotal in persuading even doves in Seoul of the need for a missile defence system.

South Korea’s president Park Geun-hye has worked to boost links with China since she came to power in 2013, but many in Seoul are frustrated by what they see as Beijing’s failure to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. Beijing remains North Korea’s only meaningful ally.

China, which has seen relations with Washington strained over the construction of artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea, is worried about the growing coalition of countries backing THAAD.

US sponsorship

THAAD is a system built by Lockheed Martin that can be transported by air, sea or land. South Korea said one THAAD battery costs about €1.2 billion, and the US would cover the costs of deployment, operation and maintenance. Currently South Korea has the ability to detect and track long-range ballistic missiles through its Aegis destroyers.

One battery is capable of shielding half to two-thirds of the South Korean territory, but it is also theoretically capable of monitoring Chinese missiles.

Seoul insisted its focus was on North Korea alone, and that THAAD represented no threat to Chinese national security, but China sees this explanation as “feeble and futile”.

“Pyongyang embarked on a wrong path due to its sense of insecurity. The deployment of THAAD in South Korea will not put an end to the vicious interaction of varied forces in the region, only causing more troubles to northeast Asia. Seoul now is at the centre of a situation that is spiralling out of control,” ran an editorial in the Global Times, which is published by the ruling Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, People’s Daily.

“If the nuclear issues in the Korean Peninsula keep spiralling downward, China has no choice but to brace for the worse scenario. China will reinforce its capability to cope with the Korean Peninsula from going out of control, including dealing with military threats from THAAD,” it said.

Japan, which has already shown an interest in procuring THAAD to help defend itself against possible attack by North Korea, said that while it had it had “no concrete plans” to introduce the system, it did believe that new military assets would strengthen its capabilities.

North Korea’s rocket on Sunday flew over Japan’s southern island of Okinawa. While Japan’s self-defence forces deployed PAC-3 surface-to-air batteries after North Korea revealed its planned launch, Patriot missile units did not attempt to engage after the rocket was fired.