Does the Minister for Finance have the Celtic Tiger under control? Or is he overfeeding it? Having had it so good for years, for the first time this decade the general public is now worrying about the economy.
The concern arises because the pound has fallen to 85p against sterling and the consequent price increases are noticeable in the shops. House prices may continue to spiral upwards, but if everything else is so rosy, why people ask, is the pound so low? Will inflation return? Will national wage agreements hold? Can we afford next year's holiday?
It is true that the economy is growing at 9 per cent, that inflation is at 1.5 per cent, that unemployment is falling, that taxes are coming down, that lower interest rates are likely. Charlie McCreevy is renowned for keeping his mouth shut and he is continuing to do so. He maintains that any comment by a Minister for Finance, outside the few set pieces, can cause havoc. So he is not prepared to explain the weak pound or answer the concern that making tax cuts on top of expansionary policies is akin to putting petrol on the flames. But he is a gambling man and all financial decisions are gambles.
The off-the-record response is that the Government is allowing the market to make its own decisions; a small increase in inflation is not harmful given the very low base; there is always turbulence during periods of uncertainty; tax cuts generate wealth by releasing deposits.
But the real reason the Government is allowing the pound fall apparently has to do with EMU. It is vital for our future that we get the entry rate we want and that we get what we want right. A booming economy and a low exchange rate should do the trick come decision-time in May. But should we join EMU at all, as Britain isn't joining yet? The debate is only starting.