Visionary leader or African strongman?

Paul Kagame has presided over impressive economic growth and development in Rwanda but there are some who now ask if it has come at the price of freedom

AT THE END of a newly built housing estate, on the top of a lonely Kigali hilltop, Victoire Ingabire is living under house arrest. Three men shelter from the midday sun, watching the front gate from underneath a tree outside. Nearby, another car is waiting, the eyes inside looking over the road approaching it.

It's been like this since April, when the leader of Rwanda's opposition United Democratic Forces party returned from exile in the Netherlands. On April 21st she was arrested. Two days later she was freed on bail, but her passport has been taken and she is not allowed to travel outside Kigali. Even worse for a politician, she has been prevented, like several opposition parties in the country, from running in the August 9th presidential elections.

Her crime? Propagating genocide ideology, a crime that includes supporting "divisionism" and "revisionism".

"They said I cannot run in the election until I clear my name, but there is no case in the courts against me, so how am I supposed to do that?" says Ingabire, who left her husband and three children in Europe to "help rebuild" her home country.

The Ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), she says, did everything to prevent a strong candidate running. Of the opposition parties who are not allies of the RPF, the founder of the socialist party is in jail, the Green Party vice-president was recently killed and the authorities refused to register Ingabire's.

"Just because you have an election does not mean you are a democracy. We are not living in a free country."

The RPF's president, Paul Kagame, who is seeking a second seven-year term as Rwanda's president, is widely expected to win next week's presidential elections. A darling of the international community, he has presided over several years of impressive economic growth and strong institution building that has seen Rwanda transform itself into an example of good governance for its neighbours.

The question, though, is: has the man once described by Tony Blair as a "visionary leader" brought economic growth and development at the price of freedom?

Ascent

Kagame did not become president until April 2000, when Pasteur Bizimungu, a Hutu who had joined the RPF in Uganda, stepped down from office after criticising his former colleagues of an unnecessary crackdown on dissent. Bizimungu was later jailed and accused of illegal political activity.

When Kagame eventually ran for president in 2003, he did so on a platform of national unity, promising to boost economic growth and strengthen the countries institutions.

On all counts, it is difficult to scoff at his achievements.

In a country recovering from one of the most traumatic events in recent world history, one in which families turned on families, uncles killing nephews and husbands wives, a remarkable stability has been established in the tiny East African nation.

Murderers live alongside victims and the families of the 800,000 who died during the 100 days of violence in 1994, as there are simply too many perpetrators to lock away. Hutus and Tutsis share power in government and the military.

Meanwhile, the economy grew at 8.6 per cent last year while sleaze has been rooted out of every branch of government.

From ministers to permanent secretaries, down to ordinary civil servants, Kagame's administration has shown zero tolerance for corruption. In 2006, he fired several senior officials for alleged corruption and embezzlement, including the minister for agriculture and the ambassadors to France and the African Union.

According to the East African Bribery Index (EABI), Rwanda's corruption prevalence is at 6.6 per cent, compared to Tanzania on 28.6 per cent and Kenya with 31.9 per cent.

"On government's commitment to fight corruption, Rwanda proves to be the most committed with 97.1 per cent, followed by Uganda with 30.5 per cent, Tanzania with 29.4 per cent, Burundi with 22.2 per cent and the least committed being Kenya with 22.1 per cent," a statement from the international corruption watchdog Transparency International said.

Much of this has been possible say critics because there is an autocrat at the helm of the county. But another key reason was the establishment of an ombudsman's office in 2004, which regularly exposes cases of fraud, malpractice and corruption at every level of the public service.

Meanwhile, although there are allegations Kagame and his cadres have looted mineral wealth from the Democratic Republic of Congo, "There seems to be a strong man here who is using his power to fulfil his ideological goals," says one western diplomat in Kigali. "He doesn't seem to be there to fill his own pockets.

"On top of this, I think that the population is willing to sacrifice personal freedoms for the greater good. It is in their culture to listen to authority.

"He wants broad-based development. His policy is development for everyone, not by clan or tribe." However, much of this development could be aesthetic.

As high commercial towers have gone up in the city, housing remains a huge problem in a country with a population density of over 253 persons per square kilometre, among the highest in Africa. A government worker can expect to get paid around €380 a month in the city, but renting a three-bedroom house with a kitchen and bathroom costs upwards of €300.

"These new buildings are for international donors in the west to see," says one Kigali-based economist. "They land in Kigali, spend two or three days and think hey, lets keep giving them money. They are obviously doing something with it."

Under big tree, nothing grows

For some in the international community though, the biggest fear is Africa could be witnessing the ascent of its next "strong man".

In the new Rwanda, there is no place for Tutsis and Hutus, the two tribes locked into intermittent cycles of violence in the tiny East African country.

Kagame presents himself as a Rwandan and has taken a strong line against anyone spreading "ethnic divisionism". His critics allege this is just a means of cracking down on any form of dissent against him and the RPF. Kagame argues that people have chosen social and economic growth over political rights.

Speaking to a packed football stadium to mark Liberation Day this year, he said: "When people expend time and energy inventing . . . that there is no political space, press freedom, who are they giving lessons to? Who are they? Are these Rwandans complaining?"

But with no plan in place for who will succeed Kagame in 2017, let alone this year, there are concerns as to what will happen when he is gone. The international community hopes a legitimate opposition will be allowed to contest the 2013 parliamentary elections, giving them time to build a base and field a strong candidate for the 2017 presidential election.

But given the example of other African countries, it wouldn't be surprising to see another of the continent's leaders changing the constitution so he can remain in power for a third term.

When Yoweri Museveni in Uganda forced a change in the constitution to let him rule for another term, he did so, he said, because the people wanted him to. Whether similar sounds come from Rwanda, we will have to wait and see.

" The population is willing to sacrifice personal freedoms for the greater good. It is in their culture to listen to authority