The future of the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP are at stake in the Westminster and local government elections announced yesterday by Tony Blair.
The Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party is seeking to obliterate the UUP. In the British general election of 2001 the UUP won six seats. This time there is not one UUP seat that is absolutely safe from the DUP.
The outcome of this battle should determine the future of David Trimble as Ulster Unionist leader, and possibly the future of the UUP as a real force in Northern Ireland politics.
Sinn Féin is also targeting the SDLP's three seats. The result here could dictate the future of Mark Durkan as SDLP leader and the potential of the party to continue to challenge Sinn Féin for nationalist support.
The outcome will also tell whether Sinn Féin is damaged by the allegations of IRA criminality.
In the last local government elections in 2001 the UUP ended up with 154 seats (23 per cent), the DUP with 131 (21 per cent), the SDLP with 117 (19 per cent), Sinn Féin with 108 seats (21 per cent), Alliance with 28 seats (5 per cent) and others 44 (11 per cent).
Some results in the 18 Westminster constituencies hinge on whether the DUP and UUP can agree a single-candidate unity pact for some constituencies before the close of nominations on April 19th.
In the 2001 Westminster election the UUP won six seats, the DUP five, Sinn Féin four and the SDLP three. In Lagan Valley, however, Jeffrey Donaldson defected from the UUP to the DUP, giving the DUP six seats now against five for the UUP.
FERMANAGH-SOUTH TYRONE
James Cooper was favourite to take the seat last time for the UUP in the Westminster elections in 2001, but the decision of Enniskillen bomb victim Jim Dixon to stand as an independent candidate with the effective support of the DUP split the unionist vote to allow Michelle Gildernew achieve a sensational victory for Sinn Féin.
There is continuing talk of a unity unionist candidate, but such are the divisions between the UUP and the DUP, which wants to run its high-profile former Ulster Unionist candidate Arlene Foster, that an accommodation appears problematic, which would hand the advantage to Gildernew. If, however, the two unionist parties briefly bury their differences and agree a candidate then it's a tight scrap.
WEST TYRONE
This was another gain for Sinn Féin in 2001 when Pat Doherty took the seat. He appears a certainty unless the other parties agree that independent hospital campaigner Dr Kieran Deeney should be allowed a free run against the Sinn Féiner.
The UUP said the DUP was opposing such a strategy. Also, the SDLP walking away from a battle would be exploited by Sinn Féin as the SDLP effectively walking away from politics. But who knows what might be agreed between now and the close of nominations? Certainly, a straightforward Doherty v Deeney contest could go either way.
MID ULSTER
A sure fire seat for Sinn Féin's chief negotiator Martin McGuinness.
FOYLE
A dogfight. It's a battle here for the future of the SDLP, with leader Mark Durkan battling to hold John Hume's seat against the challenge of Sinn Féin's Mitchel McLaughlin. Hume with 25,000 votes had almost double the vote of his nearest rival, McLaughlin, in 2001, but in the 2003 Assembly election the SDLP without Hume was only 1,500 votes in front.
The result is impossible to call at this stage although before the Northern Bank robbery, the Robert McCartney murder and the allegations of Mafia-style IRA money-laundering the advantage appeared to rest with Sinn Féin. The question is whether those allegations have stalled the Sinn Féin juggernaut.
EAST DERRY
Gregory Campbell of the DUP broke the UUP stranglehold on the seat in 2001 and should be safely returned to Westminster.
NEWRY AND ARMAGH
Seamus Mallon, like John Hume, bows out of politics, handing the task of holding this seat for the SDLP to Dominic Bradley. Even with some form of backlash against Sinn Féin following from alleged IRA criminality it seems a gargantuan challenge for him to prevent Conor Murphy winning the seat for Sinn Féin.
In the last Assembly election Sinn Féin won three of the six seats, with the SDLP only able to take one, which tells its own tale, and even a unity unionist candidate would be hard pressed to defeat Murphy.
UPPER BANN
This should be the bitterest of struggles, with David Trimble not only seeking to hold his seat and his leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party but striving to save the UUP from potential annihilation by the DUP.
In the 2001 Westminster election Trimble, who suffered intimidation while canvassing in his constituency, held the seat by 2,000 votes from the DUP's David Simpson.
In the Assembly election in November 2003 the DUP was only 400 votes behind the UUP, and that doesn't count other anti-agreement unionists in that race. If the DUP can maintain that momentum then Trimble is in serious trouble.
LAGAN VALLEY
This has been a safe UUP seat since it was created in 1983, first held by former leader James Molyneaux and then handed over to his protégé Jeffrey Donaldson, who in the last Westminster poll romped home with a massive majority of almost 19,000 votes.
This time he is running for the DUP. Ulster Unionists say Donaldson is holding Lagan Valley on the basis of falsely obtained votes and that they will return to the UUP. If this is true, then the UUP's candidate, Basil McCrea, has a chance. If it was a mainly personal vote, which seems the case, then Donaldson should be returned safely.
STRANGFORD
When former occupant John Taylor (now Lord Kilclooney) walked away from this seat in 2001 it was a close-run battle between the DUP's Iris Robinson and the UUP's David McNarry, who is not standing this time, with Robinson victorious by 1,100 votes. Since then, the DUP has consolidated Strangford, and the wind is with Robinson.
NORTH ANTRIM
DUP leader the Rev Ian Paisley once again is a shoo-in.
SOUTH ANTRIM
Two hardline unionists are the main contenders here, David Burnside for the UUP and the Rev William McCrea for the DUP, who varies his constituencies between South Antrim and Mid Ulster, where he has his Assembly seat, raising a local representational credibility question.
McCrea won the by-election in 2000 by 800 votes, but Burnside with some Alliance voters tactically supporting him against McCrea took it by 1,000 votes in the general election a year later.
In the 2003 Assembly poll, however, the DUP was 300 votes ahead of the UUP, reflecting a general trend. That appears to gives McCrea the edge, but Burnside is a canny scrapper.
EAST ANTRIM
Roy Beggs snr won this seat for the UUP from the DUP's Sammy Wilson by just over 100 votes in 2001. In the Assembly elections, which Beggs did not contest, the DUP went ahead by 700 votes. If 69-year-old Beggs can claw back some of that vote then he has a slim chance, but Wilson is favourite.
SOUTH DOWN
A unionist unity candidate would have no more than a theoretical chance of regaining this seat, which Eddie McGrady won for the SDLP from the UUP's Enoch Powell in 1987, and has doggedly held since then.
This should be a straight battle between McGrady and Sinn Féin's Caitriona Ruane who, unlike some other Sinn Féin candidates, doesn't have the whiff of cordite about her. While she has been groomed to appeal to SDLP waverers she will find it difficult to unseat the veteran McGrady.
NORTH DOWN
Bastion of moderate, apathetic unionism and in normal circumstances should be held for UUP by outgoing MP Lady (Sylvia) Hermon. She won comfortably from former MP Robert McCartney in 2001, although that time Alliance stood aside.
Even with Alliance running in Assembly elections in 2003 the UUP was 2,600 votes in front of the DUP. What is yet to be decided is whether McCartney would give the DUP candidate Peter Weir, formerly of the UUP, a free run against Lady Hermon.
McCartney said yesterday he is discussing the issue with his UK Unionist Party and his family. If he stands aside then Lady Hermon will have a seriousbattle on her hands.
WEST BELFAST
Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams is unassailable.
NORTH BELFAST
Nigel Dodds should be safe for the DUP, but watch the voting patterns as Sinn Féin prepares North Belfast for future Westminster battles.
EAST BELFAST
The UUP got within 2,000 votes of the DUP in the 2003 Assembly election. With Sir Reg Empey pitted against the DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson this will be a no-holds-barred contest.
Alliance, SDLP and Progressive Unionist Party voters tactically switching to Empey would give him a chance, but Robinson is in pole position.
SOUTH BELFAST
This is the seat vacated by the Rev Martin Smyth, now contested for the Ulster Unionist Party by Michael McGimpsey. The chances of a unity unionist candidate may be receding here, although the issue is still not fully decided.
With the UUP, DUP and SDLP respectively on a 27 per cent, 21 per cent and 23 per cent share of the vote based on the Assembly 2003 turnout there is an outside chance that the SDLP's Dr Alasdair McDonnell could sneak it.
McGimpsey must be favourite but if the DUP candidate, yet to be announced, has the necessary clout and profile then this could be a rambunctious three-way contest, with Sinn Féin's Alex Maskey contributing to the fun.
