UUP dissidents wary of being thought too shrill

China's Chairman Mao used to say that "a revolution is not a teaparty" but a leading Ulster Unionist said a tea-party was the…

China's Chairman Mao used to say that "a revolution is not a teaparty" but a leading Ulster Unionist said a tea-party was the best description of today's UUP conference in Derry. Explaining why undignified scenes were an unlikely prospect despite recent internal disagreements, another UUP grandee boasted: "We pride ourselves on being the most polite party in the British Isles."

Indeed, this note of politeness is reflected in the "Practical Hints for Speakers" distributed with the agenda. Delegates are reminded that "there is no need to shout or use excessive vocal emphasis".

Another pointer - much more likely to be ignored - is "Do not indulge in generalities which are familiar to the majority of the audience". Party conferences everywhere would become extinct if that guideline was heeded.

The generality which will be most familiar to the audience at today's gathering is "No guns, no government". We can expect speaker after speaker to reiterate the official UUP stance that without IRA decommissioning, the party will not participate in an executive with Sinn Fein.

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Senior supporters of David Trimble were very taken with a comment in the Daily Telegraph this week: What does it profit a man to gain the Nobel Peace Prize if he loses his own party?

Trimble's backers expect a "reasonably good conference" where the audience will hear "the same dissenting voices saying the same dissenting things". Even their opponents in the party acknowledge that the dissident "baby barristers" are clever but question their accuracy in reflecting grassroots opinion.

The Trimble camp has detected a change of tone by the dissidents over the past week, as though they sensed the need to avoid being portrayed as a divisive force in a party which places such a high premium on unity.

The odds on the British Prime Minister flying to the North next week to resolve the arms dilemma have lengthened, although it is still under serious consideration.

When Mr Blair flew in for the final stages of the talks at Castle Buildings last Easter, a deal did not appear to be by any means guaranteed. He took a "risk for peace" on that occasion and could do so again in a few days' time - but he will need to have some confidence that his efforts will be successful. A decision about a Blair intervention will probably be made tomorrow or Monday, when ministers and mandarins review the weekend's events.

Nobody in the process is naive enough to expect David Trimble to make a hardline speech today and then crumble on Monday. Nor is there any expectation of a dramatic change of tune from the republican movement. But the two governments are anxious that the two sides refrain from digging themselves into deeper holes on the weapons issue.

October 31st has been set as the date for establishing the North-South bodies which, according to nationalists, will also require setting up the shadow executive. The spirit behind next week's efforts at a breakthrough were summed up by insiders as follows: "Deadlines are important, let's see what we can do".

There is great political determination at government level to keep the process moving forward, both in setting up the institutions and keeping the expectations of ordinary people in Northern Ireland alive. The key fear at official level is that the same type of stagnation which characterised the post-1994 period might set in again.

Whatever their other differences, Unionists and Sinn Fein were at one this week in saying they did not feel under pressure to give way on decommissioning. Unionists remain as adamant about the need for "product" or "hardware" as republicans are that this will not be forthcoming until the causes of the conflict have been removed. Gen de Chastelain remains the honest broker, but he will clearly be keen to avoid any statement or action which allows him to be portrayed as a "stooge" of the two governments.

Meanwhile, the broad political landscape is showing some startling changes. The Democratic Unionist Party's Mayor of Derry, Joseph Miller, greeted President McAleese in the city this week with style and panache. And an anti-agreement Unionist MP, William Thompson, was taking part in a debate with Sinn Fein's Caoimhghin O Caolain. The temperature is lowering: if the UUP conference is as low-key as everyone expects it to be and the Blair-Ahern meeting goes well, the irresistible force of Sinn Fein and the immovable object of Ulster unionism could yet work out some way of coming to terms.