Economic conditions are weakening across much of the United States at the same time that food, fuel and raw material prices are increasing, the Federal Reserve said last night.
In a decidedly downbeat Beige Book summary of regional economic conditions, the Fed said manufacturers reported widespread increases in raw material prices and planned to raise selling prices to recover those costs.
"In particular, price increases were consistently reported for food products, fuel and energy products, and many raw materials," the Fed - the US central bank - said.
"More specifically, increases in the price of chemicals, metals, plastics and other petroleum-based products were commonly cited."
In a further sign that inflation pressures could be building, the Fed said that despite generally weaker labor markets, there were some reports of wage pressures and continuing shortages of skilled workers.
But analysts generally viewed the report as furthering the case for another Fed interest rate cut on April 30th. The Beige Book will feed into analysis and debate by Fed policy makers.
"The Beige Book either portrayed a slowdown in already sub-par economic growth or a deepening recession. We judge it's the latter," said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
"But regardless of the interpretation, there are undeniable negatives in front of the US economy's first derivative and a green light in front of the Fed's next rate cut decision," he added.
Stocks rallied yesterday afternoon as earnings reports from Intel Corp and JPMorgan Chase & Co reassured investors worried that a weakening economy would sap corporate profits.
The Beige Book did little to shift the dollar from its weaker trend while US Treasury debt prices were lower.
Harm Bandholz, economist at UniCredit Markets in New York, noted the report highlights the threat of higher inflation. "This is why we expect only two benign 25 bp (basis point) rate cuts during the upcoming meetings in April and June, with the high likelihood of more dissents." There are 100 basis points in a percentage point.
There were few bright spots in the Fed's summary of economic activity between March 5th and April 7th, when the current report by the New York Fed was compiled. It said tourism was up in several districts as foreigners benefited from dollar weakness to save on US vacations.