Events, as they say, can upset the best-laid plans. The new Fine Gael leader, Michael Noonan, was on a honeymoon - a decisive party victory, strong words on sleaze, 5,000 cheering supporters gathering at an ardfheis and sure success in the Tipp South by election. He was being propelled on a roll towards a general election campaign and a possible assumption of power within the year. Now, thanks to foot and mouth, all is on hold. This isn't the first time the cancellation or postponement of an ardfheis adversely affected electoral hopes. After the Stardust fire tragedy in February, 1981, the then taoiseach, Charlie Haughey, sent delegates home from the RDS where the gathering had just opened the previous night. It was to have been a launching pad for a general election to be held within weeks but it too was then delayed. The ardfheis reconvened in April and the election was held on June 11th. In the meantime, the hunger strike protest erupted in the North, Haughey lost a few vital seats and Garret FitzGerald became taoiseach.
While Noonan doesn't have the calling of a general election, he will be moving the writ for Tipp South. FG is the clear favourite to retain the seat held by the late Theresa Ahearn and was going for an early date. Not now. The new FG leader even concedes that the foot and mouth emergency may postpone the general election itself. The FF/PD coalition has always maintained there would be no election before spring, 2002, but the Opposition, pushing for it earlier, was confident it would occur this year. Current circumstances mean even a monumental Government blunder, a revolt by the Independents leading to a confidence defeat in the Dail, or damaging sleaze from Dublin Castle, won't now precipitate an election.
Noonan has been unlucky.