PRESSURE on Mr John Major over the Scott report eased last night, with strong indications that the Ulster Unionists are unlikely to vote against the government in next Monday's Commons debate.
Senior party sources at Westminster said the unionists favoured abstention so dealing a serious blow to Opposition hopes, of wounding the prime minister and forcing the resignations of the Chief Secretary, Mr William Waldegrave, and the Attorney General, Sir Nicholas Lyell.
Mr David Trimble, the UUP leader, had fuelled earlier speculation that his colleagues would line up against the government, when he described Sir Richard Scott's findings on the Arms for Iraq affair as "damning". Howe ever, since the weekend senior unionist MPs have signalled their reluctance to damage Mr Major or their relationship with him at this stage. In customary fashion, the parliamentary party will not make a formal decision until shortly before the end of Monday's debate.
The latest Westminster manoeuvres will inevitably be monitored closely in Dublin, and may further complicate desperate attempts by the British and Irish governments to revive the Northern Ireland peace process.
British government sources have indicated that, should Mr Major lose Monday's division on a technical motion, he would immediately return to the Commons and seek a confidence vote. And the signs are that he could count on UUP backing in that event.
Asked if he had any disposition to see Mr Major forced out, one senior UUP figure said last night "From a logical point of view that would be the last thing we would do. It would be difficult to see any advantage in that in present circumstances.
Ministers are maintaining close contact with the Ulster Unionists as they seek to contain any back bench rebellion over Scott and continue their efforts to persuade Mr Peter Thurnham MP not to carry out his threat to resign the Conservative whip.
In the Commons yesterday, Mr Major again defended his embattled chief secretary and attorney insisting the Scott report had "laid to rest" the central charges against the government. Mr Major insisted that Sir Nicholas had acted "perfectly properly in the matter of the Matrix Churchill prosecution, and that Mr Waldegrave had not "deliberately misled" parliament over the relaxation, of guidelines for arms exports to Iraq following the end of the Iran Iraq war.
However, Mr Tony Blair, the Labour leader, maintained the pressure on Mr Major pressing him on the specific Scott findings that ministers had agreed the sale of non lethal weapons to Iraq, that they further agreed not to inform parliament of their decision for fear of public reaction, and that that decision breached the duty of ministerial accountability. To jeering Tory MPs, Mr Blair declared "Do none of you, actually want to hold ministers to account?"