TWO-THIRDS of French voters believe French president Nicolas Sarkozy will lose next year’s election, giving a further boost to the Socialist Party just a week before it chooses its candidate.
With Mr Sarkozy’s government mired in scandal and unemployment rising, the socialists have taken advantage and used their primary season to pick up momentum seven months before the 2012 election.
On Sunday, senators elected a socialist to lead the upper house for the first time in more than 50 years after the left wrested control of the senate from Mr Sarkozy’s UMP party.
That win, and ample publicity from the primary contest, has given the opposition a bounce in the polls. A Viavoice survey published in Libérationnewspaper yesterday showed 68 per cent of people think Mr Sarkozy will be a one-term president, compared to just 23 per cent who believe he will win next year.
Most worryingly for the Élysée Palace, a majority (54 per cent) of those supporting his UMP agreed that he would lose.
Mr Sarkozy’s approval ratings have hovered around 30 per cent for the past two years, and the frailty of the French economy has left him vulnerable on a policy front he dominated during the 2007 election.
Asked who would be the best UMP candidate next year, Mr Sarkozy was named by just 21 per cent of respondents in the Libérationpoll. His foreign minister, Alain Juppé, polled higher, at 26 per cent.
The first round of the Socialist Party’s primary to select its candidate for the presidency takes place on Sunday, with polls suggesting former party leader François Hollande has a 15-point lead over his closest rival, Martine Aubry.
In a party often undermined by internal divisions, the six-way contest has surprised many analysts for its civility. But the tone grew sharper yesterday, with Mr Hollande coming in for heavy attack from his opponents.
Ms Aubry, a former labour minister, questioned the favourite’s lack of experience, a reference to the fact that he has not served in government. “In a crisis such as this one, [government] is a racing car on ice. You cannot take the wheel without knowing how it works,” she said.
Ségolène Royal, trailing in third place in the polls, also ratcheted up the criticism of Mr Hollande – her former partner and father of her four children. In a documentary due to be aired this week, she homed in on Mr Hollande’s claim that he was a “normal guy”, saying “normal” stood for “a form of banality, a form of inaction”.