Turkey: An increasing tendency toward gesture politics has dismayed many Turks, reports Nicholas Birch in Istanbul
When he returned from Brussels last December with a provisional date to start negotiations with the European Union, many Turks hailed prime minister Tayyip Erdogan as a miracle worker.
In the 40 years since first applying for membership, they had lurched from crisis to crisis, from coup to coup. Here, finally, was a leader whose pro-European sentiments seemed unimpeachable.
Less than a 100 days later, the festivities have been replaced by general bafflement.
With a decision on Turkey's accession application due this October, Erdogan and his colleagues haven't even got round to choosing a senior negotiator yet. Last year they revolutionised Ankara's traditionally inflexible policy on Cyprus. Now they appear petrified of signing a customs protocol with the Greek Cypriots.
"Since December they have been treading water", said one EU diplomat.
But it is not just the government's lethargy that troubles observers. They are equally alarmed by governing party AKP's increasing reliance on the hawkish discourse and nationalist gesture politics Turks had hoped were a thing of the past.
Faced with international condemnation when police beat female protesters on March 6th, Erdogan responded by accusing the Turkish press of pandering to the West. Down at the environment ministry, meanwhile, his cabinet colleague raised smirks by removing references to Armenia and Kurdistan from the scientific names of a local species of fox and sheep. Vulpes vulpes kurdistanica and ovis armeniana, Osman Pepe explained, were a threat to national unity.
Shaken by the recent resignations of half a dozen MPs and one cabinet minister, AKP whips are tightening party discipline. With the leaks drying up, analysts can only speculate on the reasons behind the government's apparent change of direction.
For some, Cyprus is the key. Erdogan, they argue, had gone to Brussels on December 17th hoping his support for pro-European Turkish Cypriots had finally persuaded the international community that it was Greek Cyprus, not Turkey, that was responsible for stalling reunification of the island, divided since 1974.
To an outsider, EU insistence instead that he sign a customs union with Cyprus seems a mere trifle. To many Turks, it means recognising a state they believe once tried to wipe out the island's Muslims.
That is a major issue: just last week, Turkey's president cancelled an official visit to Finland when he heard he would be sharing dinner with a Greek Cypriot leader.
With almost two-thirds of the seats in parliament, AKP should have little reason to fear this sort of nationalist backlash. But it is less powerful than it looks.
Built from the wreckage of a string of traditional anti-western Islamist parties, AKP owed its success in the 2002 elections to support for its pro-European policies that extended far beyond its traditional religious base. Now the demands of supporters - and cadres - seem to be splitting.
"For many conservative supporters, AKP has done enough on Europe for the time being", argues Cuneyt Ulsever, a columnist with the mass-market daily Hurriyet.
"They want the party to concentrate on issues they consider important - lifting the ban on headscarves in universities, and so on."
It is a current of opinion particularly strong among senior party officials, around 70 per cent of whom have their political roots in the unreconstructed political Islam of the 1970s and 1980s.
Political scientist Ihsan Dagi believes AKP's fundamental problem lies in gauging even its traditional support base. "Opinion polls regularly show AKP's conservative supporters to be more pro-European than Turks as a whole", he says. "Yet at the same time, these are the people more susceptible to nationalist rhetoric."
AKP's efforts to patch up such contradictions have so far been counter -productive. Last year's aborted plans to criminalise adultery were just the start of a progressive alienation of mainstream supporters.
"The government must realise that its strength is rooted in support for its policy of change, not in the party itself", writes Ali Bayramoglu, a columnist with the Islamist daily Zaman.
With parliamentary opposition in disarray, the government shouldn't have to worry about its temporary loss of direction. But nature abhors a vacuum, and in Turkey there is always someone to fill the gap.
Since last August, when Turkey's chief of staff told his men to shut up, the generals have been unusually quiet. Last week, though, one pointedly commemorated six Turkish policemen killed by the British in the first World War. The ceremony had been dropped in the 1950s.
A couple of days later, to the anger of ministers, the general tipped to take over the top post in a year's time also weighed in with a criticism of government policy on Iraq.
It could be the start of a trend.