There was cautious confidence among supporters of Mr David Trimble last night that they were ahead of their opponents in the lead-up to tomorrow's critical meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council in Belfast.
Soundings taken from a variety of unionist sources indicated that Mr Trimble had recovered significant ground in the past week. Had he gone ahead with the meeting last Saturday, as originally planned, he would probably have lost by a wide margin.
The consensus view is that he has now reversed the situation to a considerable extent and could well secure a majority for rejoining the Northern Ireland powersharing Executive with nationalists and republicans.
"It's getting tighter and tighter," opponents of Mr Trimble admitted. There was said to be a growing reluctance among UUC delegates in general to prompt a bitter and divisive leadership contest at this stage, since this would be a likely consequence of defeat for Mr Trimble's approach. "It's probably the last thing they want," members of the No lobby in the party conceded.
Meanwhile, both Downing Street and the White House have emphatically denied a report in the Guardian that the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, made two unsuccessful attempts by telephone on May 10th to persuade President Clinton to put pressure on Dublin and Sinn Fein to soften their stance over dropping the RUC title.
However, both republican and Irish-American sources maintain there was an effort by Mr Blair and others to recruit the President and his administration to persuade Dublin and Sinn Fein to take a different view.
Republican sources have indicated very strongly that a "double-barrelled" name for the police service would result in the withdrawal of the IRA statement of May 6th. The issue is proving a major test of the adroitness of the British government, and the possibility of some movement of a subtle political nature, whereby the RUC name would be recognised but have no operational role, remained a possibility.
The mood in unionism was conveyed by one sympathetic observer who said it was "sad to see the party tearing itself apart, it's not good for unionism and the Protestant people". It now seems that considerations of solidarity may override misgivings about Mr Trimble's tactics. Conciliatory signals were coming from Mr Trimble's chief opponent, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, who will meet the party leader this morning. Mr Trimble was at an undisclosed location in Co Down last night, continuing his series of private meetings with UUC delegates.
The position of Mr John Taylor remained unclear but was still considered by some observers to be vital. There were no overt signs of any significant concession to him on policing, although movement on the issue could not be ruled out.
The apparent likelihood of a Trimble victory, or even a compromise between the two camps, which would still allow the Executive to be formed, has meant that speculation about the consequences of defeat for the UUP leader has receded. However, it is believed that if Mr Trimble lost, the two governments would jointly move forward with the implementation of all the non-Stormont aspects of the Belfast Agreement in the expectation that the IRA would not withdraw its offer to put arms beyond use.
In the event of the UUC deciding to approve Mr Trimble's approach, it was unclear when the first meeting of the restored Executive would take place.
As a Northern bank holiday, Monday would be ruled out, but no decision had apparently been taken as between Tuesday and Wednesday.