A SECOND IRA ceasefire by Christmas? Inclusive, all party talks by the turn of the year? Castles in the sky? That certainly is the view of one senior source close to the British government.
After another week of speculation and hype, he dismissed hopes of a revived peace process. "Stay negative," he advised The Irish Times, asserting: "It's next to impossible to give Sinn Fein terms and conditions they'd accept." He then added a powerful rider: "And even if we could give anything, the fear is Trimble would use it as an excuse to bring us down at Westminster."
As they continued their search for a ceasefire winning formula, senior Irish sources last night concurred that the Westminster arithmetic could be the clincher. According to one key player: "If they [the British government] put the premium on the insurance policy with David Trimble then nothing will happen."
The death last weekend of the Conservative MP, Barry Porter, is temporarily cancelled out by the earlier death of Labour's Terry Patchett. But Labour is likely to press for an early by election in the safe Barnsley seat. So by Christmas Mr Major's Commons majority will have gone.
Much as they might like, Tory managers cannot indefinitely postpone a contest in the Wirral. If, as seems highly likely, they lose it, Mr Major's government will be in a minority.
Mr Tony Blair has vowed to force the Tories from power before Mr Major's preferred date for a May election. But he will only table a no confidence motion if he's sure of winning; that is, if he has the commitment of all the minority parties to back him.
Mr Trimble calculates that this possibility will not arise before February, if only because nobody will want to trigger a mid winter election, or go to the polls on an old electoral register.
But some of those closest to him are arguing that when it does he should strike, choosing to purchase influence with Mr Blair, rather than alienate him by sustaining a government perceived to be in its dying days.
On lesser issues, Tory managers might have been able to rely on the "split" between Mr Trimble and his parliamentary "old guard". But one senior MP, not normally counted a Trimble loyalist, last night told The Irish Times that Mr Major couldn't count on the UUP in a confidence vote.
"It would probably be a rerun of 1979. Having supported the Callaghan government, it became clear it was going nowhere. And we decided without compunction to back Thatcher's vote of no confidence.".
That very threat might reinforce Dublin hopes that Mr Major will take the risk and answer the call of history". The Prime Minister certainly knows the Ulster Unionists are unreliable allies. They abandoned him in the crucial vote on the Scott report on the "Arms for Iraq" affair, as close as Mr Major has recently come to a "confidence issue.
Barring politically difficult concessions to Northern Ireland farmers, the UUP seems set to join Labour in inflicting a government defeat over BSE in the Commons next Wednesday.
Faced with the choice of peace or a few extra months at the mercy of Mr Trimble, the Tanaiste this week expressed confidence Mr Major would go for the big prize. Echoing Mr Spring's public words, one senior Irish source suggested the restoration of the ceasefire could be a plus for Mr Major as he prepared to face the electorate.
Many at Westminster think that at least questionable. Mr Trimble's argument is that the "flexibility" shown in response to the 1994 ceasefire cannot be repeated that the "working assumption" about the permanence of the cessation was exploded by the Docklands bomb of February 9th and that the hurdle barring Sinn Fein's entry to talks must in consequence be raised.
Since the bombing of the British army headquarters at Lisburn, the words of Mr, Major and Sir Patrick Mayhew have encouraged Mr Trimble and backbench Tory MPs to believe that it has been. Senior Tories claim ministerial assurance that the credibility of any new ceasefire could only be tested "by passage of time and an established code of behaviour on the ground".
Hence the expectation of a period of "quarantine" to precede Sinn Fein's entry into talks. And last night Mr Andrew Hunter, chairman of the Conservative Backbench Committee on Northern Ireland, warned: "Any hint or suspicion on the Tory back benches that the government was likely to compromise its position, and allow an easy route back into talks for Sinn Fein, would be extremely badly received."
Other pro unionist backbenchers mutter darkly that any such compromise would leave them "in an impossible position". Not for the first time, the implication is that some might resign the Tory whip.
Tory rebellions over Northern Ireland have notoriously failed to materialise. The government has managed to bring a troubled Mr Hunter into line more than once. But, as the arithmetic now stands, just one defection would be enough.
Moreover, the Tory press and public opinion are critical factors. Much to Dublin's chagrin, the Daily Telegraph and the London Times are trenchant in support of Mr Trimble and the Union.
If, as Mr Major and Sir Patrick fear, a deal with Dublin was to propel Mr Trimble out of the talks, then the prize could be tarnished in a welter of recrimination and Tory in fighting.
In addition, Dublin confidence that a ceasefire is on offer runs counter to all British intelligence reports. The possibility of a high profile assassination bid is being taken seriously. More bombs are expected. Devastation on a massive scale was only recently averted. The Lisburn bombing, after all, was just weeks ago.
Moreover, the Tory press and public opinion are critical factors. Much to Dublin's chagrin, the Daily Telegraph and the London Times are trenchant in support of Mr Trimble and the Union.
If, as Mr Major and Sir Patrick fear, a deal with Dublin was to propel Mr Trimble out of the talks, then the prize could be tarnished in a welter of recrimination and Tory in fighting.
In addition, Dublin confidence that a ceasefire is on offer runs counter to all British intelligence reports. The possibility of a high profile assassination bid is being taken seriously. More bombs are expected. Devastation on a massive scale was only recently averted. The Lisburn bombing, after all, was just weeks ago.
Mr Major might win plaudits should he decide on one final risk for peace. He might, alternatively, be condemned as an appeaser.
Barely a fortnight ago the Prime Minister insisted the IRA would have to offer "more than soft words". His words echoed the widespread belief in Conservative and unionist ranks that the first ceasefire was tactical, and underlined the expectation that a second would have to be much more explicitly stated, and matched by comprehensive evidence on the ground over time.
In London this week Mr Spring said no one should underestimate the difficulties caused for the British government and the unionist parties by the resumption of the IRA campaign. As he ponders the options this weekend, Mr Major might reflect that he doesn't know the half of it.