iWILL THE Senate meet the Christmas deadline set by majority leader Harry Reid to pass a 10-year, $848 billion healthcare reform package?
If the Bill is to pass by December 23rd, the last day the Senate is scheduled to be in session, Mr Reid must begin wrapping up the debate by the middle of this week. After two weeks of intense negotiations, including the past two weekends, suspense is building and senators are growing fractious.
Mr Reid apparently hopes he can wear down the resistance of a handful of hold-outs. Much depends on the publication this week of an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regarding a compromise on the public insurance option that was reached by a panel of 10 Democratic senators last week.
The plan would allow Americans between the ages of 55 and 65 to “buy in” to the Medicare system, which is at present reserved for those age 65 and older.
It would also let private companies buy insurance modelled on the US government’s employee insurance system.
If the CBO says the plan will not increase the deficit, chances of a Bill passing are good. If not, the Senate healthcare battle is likely to continue into the new year.
Attention is focusing on Senator Joe Lieberman from Connecticut, who said on Sunday that he will not vote for the Bill if it expands Medicare coverage.
An Orthodox Jew, Mr Lieberman walked three miles to Capitol Hill for debates on Saturday, because his religion does not allow him to travel in a car on the Sabbath.
Mr Lieberman expressed interest in the Medicare idea when it was brought up last week. Congressional aides told the Washington Post he said he would not block its passage.
Another Congressional source told the New York Times that Lieberman’s “total flip-flop ... leaves us in a predicament as to what to do.”
Though Mr Lieberman is an Independent, he is counted as one of 60 Democratic votes (of 100) in the Senate. Sixty is the magic number required to avoid a Republican filibuster. Mr Lieberman told CBS on Sunday that the Bill could not muster 60 votes.
A second Democratic Senator, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, said he was waiting for the CBO analysis to decide on the Medicare provision. Mr Nelson is also demanding tougher language banning government financing of abortion, after an amendment he sponsored failed last week.
A different, trillion-dollar version of the healthcare Bill which passed in the House on November 7th would prevent women who receive government subsidies for healthcare from purchasing insurance that covers abortion, even with their own money.
Because Mr Lieberman and Mr Nelson cannot be counted on, Mr Reid continues to court the “ladies from Maine”, Republican senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.
Ms Snowe has expressed reservations about the Medicare plan. To humour her, Mr Reid asked the CBO to do a cost analysis of her proposal for a “trigger option” that would “trigger” a public insurance plan in the event private plans prove too expensive.
Two other Democratic senators, Mary Landrieu from Louisiana and Blanche Lincoln from Arkansas, are also considered less than reliable. They are demanding provisions to help small businesses defray the cost of purchasing health insurance for employees.
Senators yesterday debated an amendment proposed by Sen Brian Dorgan of North Dakata, which would authorise cheaper prescription drugs to be imported from Canada and elsewhere.
President Barack Obama supported the measure when he was a senator, but it contravenes a deal the White House subsequently struck with pharmaceutical companies in exchange for their support for healthcare legislation.
Despite the difficulties, Mr Obama told CBS on Sunday, “I think it’s going to pass out of the Senate before Christmas.”