Time appears to have dealt fatal blow to ceasefire hopes

SINN Fein appeared to concede yesterday that the time factor had all but eliminated the prospects of circumstances being created…

SINN Fein appeared to concede yesterday that the time factor had all but eliminated the prospects of circumstances being created which would prompt a renewed IRA ceasefire and thus permit the party access to next Monday's all party negotiations.

The indications are that, even if a comprehensive agreement is reached by the British and Irish prime ministers on outstanding issues, the time remaining is too short for the republican movement to engage in the detailed process of internal consultation and analysis which it would regard as essential before deciding on a "formal statement of cessation.

Mr Gerry Adams appeared resigned to the inevitability of his exclusion from the talks, when he said in Belfast. "I think I have to "say, and I say so reluctantly, that what appears to be opening up on Monday are not the proper all party talks, and certainly not the type of talks which the electorate of the Six Counties or the people of Ireland and Britain deserve and desire.

Referring to the difficulties encountered in this week's Anglo Irish talks, he said significantly these issues should have been resolved in time for people then to try and move the whole process on".

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Speaking yesterday morning, while the Spring Mayhew talks were going on, he appealed "even at this late stage" for the Irish Government to remain "firmly focused on the need for proper talks dealing with all the issues in an inclusive way."

The IRA message communicated to the BBC yesterday left only the slimmest possibility there might be a ceasefire statement before Monday.

The only glimmer of hope remaining lay in the fact that this was not a formal IRA Army Council statement definitively rejecting a ceasefire, but a telephoned message from "a senior IRA source" which was plainly intended to increase pressure on the London talks.

The prospect still remains that, in suitable circumstances, a cease fire might be on the cards later, allowing Sinn Fein to join the talks after they have begun.

The element of the IRA message which appeared to definitively rule out decommissioning "this side of a final settlement may not be as absolute as appeared at first sight.

For one thing, it runs counter to measured statements made recently by Mr Adams and some of his most senior colleagues. Only last Saturday the Sinn Fein president told reporters that the decommissioning issue could be resolved to the satisfaction of all the parties "if people are prepared to sit down and talk about it as well as all the other issues which also need to be resolved".

He asserted that "the decommissioning issue is not a problem for us". Moreover, his earlier acknowledgment that Sinn Fein could sign up to the Mitchell Principles if all other parties did, clearly implied a willingness to work on the basis of a parallel process with the practicalities of decommissioning being linked to and resolved in tandem with progress on substantive issues.

The line adopted by the "senior IRA source", which appeared to rule out any decommissioning before a final settlement, is very different to the more flexible approach manifested by Mr Adams and his Sinn Fein colleagues.

As yesterday's IRA "message" was not couched in the formal style of Army Council messages, which are generally issued in written form in Dublin and signed "P O'Neill", there remains a slight possibility that it does not represent an absolute and irrevocable position, arrived at after due consideration by the highest councils of the IRA.

If indeed, it does represent strict IRA policy, it may indicate a division between the political and the militant Wings of republicanism. More likely, however, it could be a tactical move, deliberately signalling a distancing between the IRA and Sinn Fein.

If Mr Adams succeeded in delivering the political circumstances in which Sinn Fein was involved in real and substantive negotiations, under a chairman who instilled confidence as an effective arbitrator and facilitator, it is hardly conceivable that the IRA would limit his negotiating potential by holding to such an inflexible line.

For the moment, however, the clock appears to have defeated the chances of a major step forward, on the threshold of Monday's historic talks. Only an outside chance remains that agreement between the two prime ministers will be of such a compelling nature the IRA would rush to a ceasefire decision this weekend.

Mr Adams yesterday pointed out he had repeatedly warned of the danger of time running out. The issues on which the Anglo Irish discussions became snagged over the past two days, he said, could and should have been resolved months ago. No logical rebuttal of this argument seems possible, and the two sovereign governments must stand indicted.

There is a sense in the North once again, of a great opportunity having been frittered away a dawning realisation that farce may be about to descend into tragedy.

As the remaining vestiges of hope pinned on Monday's meeting begin to evaporate, attention must turn to new horizons.

Mr Adams, however, has refused to relinquish his vision. "He restated his conviction yesterday that there is only one way out of the North's long travails. "I am totally convinced we will have a peace settlement and that Sinn Fein will be part of the process of finding that accommodation. But I cannot tell you when it will be, and it appears to me quite unlikely that it will arise directly out of the talks scheduled to begin on Monday."