Profile: Gordon Brown has long believed that his destiny is to become British prime minister, but has his moment come too late, asks Deaglán de Bréadún
Picture this: Britain's chancellor of the exchequer is standing in front of the mirror, preparing his next career move. He's rehearsing an imaginary television interview: "As prime minister, I have to say . . . Oh come on, Jeremy, you don't expect me as Prime Minister to respond to that . . . Well, speaking as head of her majesty's government, I must tell you . . . " Suddenly an all-too-familiar face peers out of the glass before him and Tony Blair inquires belligerently: "You talking to me?"
Alternatively, the face in this little fantasy might be that of John Reid, the "safe pair of fists" whose wall-to-wall TV appearances during the Heathrow crisis aroused speculation that he might be one man - the other is education secretary Alan Johnson - with a slim chance of beating Brown at this stage.
Future students of political science may be required to analyse Tony Blair's current behaviour as a perfect example of how not to leave political office. His extraordinary achievements in restoring a moribund Labour party to power and winning three general elections are being overshadowed by the undignified spectacle of a man determined to stay in the driving seat even though the wheels are falling off the car.
Skilful manipulation of the media eased Labour's path to power, but no amount of spin-doctoring could control the feeding frenzy this week. There were all the elements of political soap opera with allegations and rumours of plotting, treachery and betrayal.
It still looks as if Gordon Brown will get the top job, but will the game be worth the candle? Labour resembles a fractious married couple who have their crockery-throwing sessions in the street. There are fresh doubts that the party can win a fourth term in office, especially with cool, clean hero David Cameron, the Steve Silvermint of British politics, waiting in the wings.
"Part of the problem with Brown is that he's Scottish and has very little appeal for English voters," said an observer with Conservative leanings. "The Labour party is only listening to itself and not to the public."
But for the moment at least, the future looks Brown. What manner of man is this, who has waited so long and without much obvious patience for the laurel wreath to be placed on his brow?
BORN ON FEBRUARY 20th, 1951, Gordon Brown was the son of a Presbyterian minister and showed early signs of academic brilliance. He entered the University of Edinburgh at 16 where he read history and graduated with first-class honours. An accident playing rugby left him blind in the left eye and this was replaced by a prosthetic eye. The son of the manse worked as a lecturer and later as a TV journalist before winning the Commons seat for Dunfermline East in 1983.
After the untimely death of Labour leader John Smith in 1994, Brown was tipped to succeed him but made way instead for Tony Blair. It is part of British political folklore that the two men struck a deal at the Granita Restaurant in Islington, north London, with Blair ceding control over economic policy in a future Labour government and making other concessions to Brown in return for staying out of the leadership race.
Despite constant reports of tensions and rows, the double-act has worked remarkably well. Past experience convinced the business and professional classes that Labour in government was a recipe for high inflation and unemployment, but the cautious and sure-footed Brown has reversed that image, presiding over the longest period of continuous economic growth in British history.
As well as reassuring the moneyed classes - some critics say he was excessively frugal and prudent - the canny Scot has protected his left flank through his leading role in efforts to reduce Third World debt and by cultivating a reputation as being essentially "Old Labour" with a commitment to traditional socialist values that the ultra-pragmatic Blairites could not match. (He has used the term "Real Labour" rather than "New Labour".) Brown is also seen as less Europhile than Blair, as evidenced in his fancy footwork over joining the single-currency zone where he tiptoed around the issue but never got his feet wet. "He created a veto for himself and then he used it," says one Brown-watcher.
EVER SINCE THAT night in the Granita (now a Mexican restaurant), commentators have speculated about the terms of the alleged deal which, according to some versions, included a commitment from Blair to step aside in favour of Brown during the second term of a future Labour government.
The Granita dinner à deux took place on May 31st, 1994, or exactly 13 years prior to the date when, according to the Sun newspaper this week, Tony Blair will step down as Labour leader. The way things are going, Blair may be forced out before then but, sooner or later and assuming he wins any leadership vote, Brown should be moving from No 11 to a new office in No 10 Downing Street (he already has the use of a flat in No 10). What kind of prime minister will he make and how will he respond to the many challenges ahead of him?
The dour scot is a different personality on both the social and political levels from Tony Blair. The more amiable Blair comes across as someone willing to ditch decades of dogma in pursuit of his aims, whereas Brown has managed to preserve the aura of an old-style social democrat but without allowing his hands to be tied by doctrinaire policies. Brown sees himself as a reformer and a moderniser but less inclined to go to extremes than the Blairites.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST challenge Brown faces is the Middle East, particularly Britain's military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and its perceived role as chief lieutenant and cheerleader to George W Bush in the region generally. Labour left-wingers will want Brown to withdraw troops from these trouble-spots and put clear blue water between himself and the White House on foreign-policy issues, but his public pronouncements so far have given little indication that he would jump in that direction. Brown is a keen student of US politics and history and has holidayed at Cape Cod for many years. He supported British intervention in Iraq but managed to look as if he was taking little pleasure in it.
He will also be faced with the need to restore unity in a fractured and demoralised party in time for the inevitable general election, which must take place by 2010 at the latest (there is speculation he could go for an early election to give himself a personal mandate as prime minister). As for Northern Ireland, Blair has been one of the driving-forces in the peace process and it could be a major test for Brown to show that he has the same level of commitment and zeal in pursuit of a settlement as well as a similar ability to be nice to people he doesn't necessarily like, in the republican and unionist camps. Some insiders say that Brown sees Blair as spending too much time on the North with little result, but others insist the DUP would be naive to place too much faith in their fellow-Presbyterian.
A Brown premiership will be very different in style to the Blair years. It will be less flashy and not so obviously media-oriented, with far more helpings of sober purpose and dogged if unspectacular pursuit of policy objectives. The Tories under David Cameron are re-inventing themselves in all sorts of clever ways and it may be that the electorate is ready for a change. Gordon Brown has now been waiting 12 years for the top job and he still must wait a little longer but the question is, when he finally makes it, will it be too late?
TheBrownFile
Who is he? Gordon Brown, Britain's chancellor of the exchequer and wannabe prime minister
Why is he in the news? Tony Blair won't give him the job - at least not yet
Most appealing characteristic Steady hand at the tiller
Least appealing characteristic Not much of a laugh - in public.
Most likely to say "Och, Tony, will ye no' gie's a chance?"
Least likely to say "I'm happy to stay in this job another 12 years"