Taoiseach believes clarification documents sealed deal

Like his immediate predecessor, Mr Bertie Ahern must have seen the wording of the IRA ceasefire declaration before he went on…

Like his immediate predecessor, Mr Bertie Ahern must have seen the wording of the IRA ceasefire declaration before he went on to the steps of Government Buildings to welcome the "meaningful and permanent" cessation.

Contrary to all of the speculation following the joint statement by John Hume and Gerry Adams at noon, the Taoiseach believes the ceasefire will be announced today and that the IRA only made its decision yesterday.

He is also confident that it was the clarification documents, which are nearly as long as the decommissioning paper itself, which clinched the deal. It now remains to be seen whether the IRA statement will engender the same level of momentum into the ailing talks process which the first ceasefire did in August 1994.

The Taoiseach has had little sleep over the last three nights working through the final details which could make the second ceasefire possible. He has confided to colleagues how "hairy" the situation was over the last few days.

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From the moment he came into office three weeks ago, Mr Ahern believed that there was one chance, and one chance only, to try for an IRA ceasefire. Having maintained his political contacts with Sinn Fein at political level over his last few months in Opposition, he immediately felt it was a "damn nuisance", as one source put it, that he could not deal face-to-face with the same direct contacts.

Even during the interim between the election and the formation of the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Coalition, the outgoing Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, gave Mr Ahern access to all Government papers on the peace and talks processes. Mr Ahern believes, in fact, that he made a major input into the joint decommissioning document published by the British and Irish governments on June 25th.

He was absolutely categorical yesterday, however, that he did not view that document as the clincher which brought the IRA to the brink of a renewed ceasefire. The 20 pages of clarification, the assurances on parity of esteem, confidence-building measures, the structure of the talks and the issue of prisoners, had an important part to play. So, too, had the two recent meetings between government representatives and the Ulster Unionist Party and the secret re-opening of the channels of communication between Government officials and Sinn Fein.

The single most important development to secure a second ceasefire, in the Taoiseach's view, was the unanimity of the positions adopted by the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, President Clinton and himself about the road to the talks table which lies ahead for Sinn Fein.

There were many hurdles which the Government had to face on the way to the ceasefire in the last three weeks. The Orange Order's march down the Garvaghy Road raised republican feelings to fever pitch. These feelings abated when the Orange Order re-routed some of the most contentious marches the next weekend.

Throughout all of the three weeks, Mr Ahern, both publicly and privately, has made it clear - in a way that none of its predecessors had done - that its role is to progress the concerns of the nationalist people.

On the brink of a new ceasefire, it is also important to realise that Mr Ahern believes Sinn Fein and the IRA were driven out of the peace process in 1996. He is determined that the Republican movement will be listened to this time round.

There was a signal irony for the Taoiseach in the quick pace of pending developments yesterday. The IRA saved Mr Albert Reynolds from the full effects of the fallout from the Beef tribunal in 1994 with the announcement of the first cessation of violence. There are many in Government hoping that a second ceasefire will do the same for Mr Ahern today.