The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister will try to bridge the gap between unionists and republicans on decommissioning in London today following yesterday's IRA withdrawal of co-operation from the de Chastelain commission.
Government hopes centre on persuading Mr David Trimble that the IRA's offer last Friday does, in fact, represent a significant shift in its position on decommissioning. It also hopes to persuade the IRA to restore and possibly improve its offer in the context of commitments on demilitarisation in the North, no watering down of the Patten Commission on policing, and the implementation of measures contained in the Belfast Agreement of importance to nationalists.
While the IRA's dramatic announcement of the withdrawal of its interlocutor from the de Chastelain commission added to pessimism in some quarters, the Government appeared relatively unconcerned, with sources saying the move had been expected, and in certain circumstances the decision could be reversed as quickly as it had been taken.
Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will attempt to chart a route through the impasse this afternoon after a series of meetings in Downing Street with the Ulster Unionist Party, Sinn Fein and the SDLP. The Taoiseach and Prime Minister will meet alone for 30 minutes this afternoon before jointly hosting meetings with the parties. They will then have further discussions when these meetings have finished to try to agree a way forward.
The format of the talks underlines the Government's insistence that there will be no "review" of the Belfast Agreement as originally suggested by the UUP. Rather, Government sources say, they have agreed with the British government that a limited series of consultations take place with the sole aim of seeking to reinstate the institutions. The Government is still pushing for a review lasting "days rather than weeks".
In a continuing atmosphere of crisis, the Government is hoping Mr David Trimble's meeting in Belfast last night with the head of the decommissioning body, Gen. John de Chastelain, will have helped convince the UUP leader that the IRA shifted its position on decommissioning significantly last Friday.
However, there was no indication of such a change of view on Mr Trimble's part last night when he dismissed the IRA's offer as a publicity stunt as he left his meeting with the general.
While the IRA said last night that Friday's offer had been withdrawn, there is hope that it could be put back on the table in certain circumstances. The IRA offer, according to Friday's report from the commission, held out "the real prospect of an agreement which would enable it [the commission] to fulfil the substance of its mandate". The general reported that the IRA interlocutor had "indicated to us today the context in which the IRA will initiate a comprehensive process to put arms beyond use".
Mr Ahern has since suggested strongly that the IRA gave more detailed information and commitments to the general, enabling him to draw his conclusions. He has urged Mr Trimble to talk to Gen. de Chastelain to hear this information, and has also suggested Mr Trimble should seek further clarification from the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams.
Government sources appeared last night not to see the IRA withdrawal of its interlocutor as a significant setback. They pointed out that the IRA had refused to appoint an interlocutor until agreement was reached to establish the all-party Executive and North-South institutions.
Therefore the IRA would see the withdrawal of its interlocutor as both logical and inevitable following the suspension of the institutions.