ABOUT 25 per cent of Catholics in Northern Ireland want to see the Union preserved, and this negates much of the speculation concerning the implications of a future Catholic majority there, a major survey suggests.
Given the current pattern of Catholic constitutional preferences, a Catholic majority is far from being the same thing as a majority in favour of Irish unity according to the latest volume of Social Attitudes in Northern Ireland.
The author of a key article, Prof Richard Breen, director of the Centre for Social Research at Queen's University, says: "Indeed, assuming 70 per cent of Catholics supported Irish unity (and that no Protestants did) a majority in favour of unification would require that the adult Catholic population be more than 2 1/2 times larger than the Protestant population."
But he says it is unlikely that the current pattern of constitutional preferences among Catholics (and possibly among Protestants) will be maintained.
Survey work for the report shows that between 1989 and 1993 the proportion of Catholics whose preferred long-term policy for the North was that it remain part of the UK, increased from 32 per cent to 36 per cent. Those who wanted a reunification of Ireland dropped from 56 per cent to 49 per cent. In 1994, this trend was dramatically reversed, with a very marked decline (to 24 per cent) in the percentage of Catholics in favour of the Union.
Unpredictable economic and political circumstances may lead to further changes in constitutional preferences, but the direction of such changes cannot be predicted, Prof Breen says.
The number of Protestants preferring Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK continues at 90 per cent. Overall, it appears that around two out of three adults in the North favour a long-term policy of retaining the Union. About 6 per cent of Protestants favour a united Ireland in the long term.
Another paper in the report shows an extremely low level of trust in political structures and their efficiency and integrity. Asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement: "People like me have no say in what the government does", only 14 per cent of Catholics and a similar percentage of Protestants disagreed.
Only 10 per cent of Catholics and 12 per cent of Protestants disagreed with the statement that: "Those we elect as MPs lose touch with people pretty quickly".
Asked how much they trusted politicians of any party in the UK to tell the truth when they were in a tight corner, only 7 per cent of Catholics and 12 per cent of Protestants replied "almost always" or "most of the time".
Asked how much they trusted police not to bend the rules in trying to get a conviction, 27 per cent of Catholics and 64 per cent of Protestants answered "almost always" or "most of the time".
The report identifies an emerging group of "young dissenters" who were brought up as Protestant but who no longer hold any religious identity.
Although they mainly identify themselves as British, the majority of these (65 per cent) do not see themselves as unionists. Half of this group favour a united Europe and almost a fifth favour a reunified Ireland. Similarly, a fifth of this group do not have any political allegiance.