THE Bogside Residents Group (BRG) and the Apprentice Boys insist that neither will be responsible for initiating any violence in Derry this weekend. Equally, neither side will disclose its plans for tomorrow and Saturday.
Each side argues that it has "gone the final mile" in trying to reach an accommodation over Saturday's disputed Apprentice Boys parade along Derry's historic walls. Now, Sir Patrick Mayhew, on the advice of the RUC Chief Constable, Sir Hugh Annesley, has attempted to impose his own solution.
A similar order banning Orangemen from marching along Garvaghy Road in Portadown last month did not work. On that occasion, Sir Hugh Annesley was forced to cave in to the Orangemen and their loyalist supporters. Can the order barring the Apprentice Boys from marching along the stretch of the city walls overlooking the Bogside realistically lead to a different outcome over the past couple of days there has been a sense that both the BRG and the Apprentice Boys have been seeking to establish pre emptive absolution for themselves in the event of the weekend degenerating into civil strife in Derry and, quite possibly, across the North.
Upwards of 15,000 Apprentice Boys and their supporters are due to converge on the predominantly nationalist city of Derry on Saturday. Nationalists from across the North have been asked by the BRG to come to the city from tomorrow to swell the ranks of its supporters.
The former SDLP chairman, Mr Mark Durkan, has warned that too many nationalists and loyalists are viewing this weekend as the "Celtic versus Rangers" sectarian rematch following the "Orange victory" at Drumcree.
Last year's events in Derry provide a strong pointer to what could unfold in the city, and elsewhere in the North, if Sir Patrick Mayhew's initiative is not successful. On that occasion nationalists gathered on the city walls from the Friday night through to the Saturday morning when, amid scenes of violence, they were forced off the walls by the police to allow the Apprentice Boys to parade the circuit of the fortifications.
The BRG is planning a massive parade in Derry tomorrow. It is reasonable to speculate that, had the decision to close off the walls not been taken, there might have been an attempt to occupy the fortifications tomorrow night to block the loyalist parade on Saturday morning.
Both the Apprentice Boys and unionists have expressed dissatisfaction with the Northern Secretary's decision. One of the strongest statements came from Mr Gregory Campbell, a Derry DUP councillor, who said that unionists would "not wear" the decision. "If people expect us to meekly walk away and accept that decision, to lie down and walk away, well then that is not going to happen", he said.
Mr Campbell did not outline how a unionist refusal to accept she decision to close the walls be manifested. But later in a more moderate statement, he said that people had to try to remain calm. The Apprentice Boys should now try to negotiate their way to a more acceptable outcome, he said.
Mr John Taylor, deputy leader of the Ulster Unionist Party claimed the decision had resulted from threats of violence by "republican extremists" from the Bogside. "It is obvious that republican activists have been orchestrating confrontation between loyalists and the RUC in an effort to damage the stability of Northern Ireland."
He urged unionists not to fall into the "republican trap", adding: "I pray that the Apprentice Boys' walk in Londonderry proceeds on Saturday with dignity and peace ... Those who engage in violence must be dealt with firmly."
The question now is whether any appeals for calm can ensure that there is no violence at the weekend, either in Derry or elsewhere. When the Orangemen were initially banned from parading down Garvaghy Road, disorder, disruption and violence spread swiftly to other areas.
With Northern Ireland still suffering from the after shocks of Drumcree, the concern now is that the Derry decision will prompt a similar backlash. On Saturday, there will be at least 15,000 Apprentice Boys in the city, and there must be some anxiety that they will try to parade the full length of the walls despite being banned from walk along the stretch overlooking the Bogside.
Alternately, they may seek to create a stand off along the disputed stretch similar to the protest at Drumcree. And, just as at Drumcree, this could spark serious violence in Derry and across the North, with elements of the UVF, UDA, IRA and INLA waiting in the background to have their say.
The SDLP leader, Mr John Home, said that he could understand the anger of the Apprentice Boys with the Northern Secretary's decision. The best way out of a still fraught situation was for both sides to hammer out an "agreement between now and next Saturday, he said.
