Constituency profile: South Down
This appears to be one of the North's more predictable seats and a stronghold for the SDLP. But Sinn Féin's striking gains in the Westminster 2001 election and the retirement of the SDLP's Mr Eddie McGrady mean the election here is far from over.
The constituency stretches from Saintfield in the more unionist north to Newry in the nationalist south. Its eastern fringes also take in some wards from Banbridge District Council, which helps to even up the religious balance.
The area is split by the Mourne Mountains, thus creating two distinct areas, one centring on Downpatrick to the north and the other focusing more on Newry. At the last census just over 60 per cent described themselves as Catholic, and the political trend points eventually towards a fourth nationalist seat. This used to be an Ulster Unionist constituency, last held by the late Enoch Powell before his defeat by Mr McGrady in a cliff-hanger election in 1987.
The SDLP majority has strengthened since then, helped in part by boundary revisions.
In 2001 Sinn Féin's Mr Mick Murphy overtook Mr Dermot Nesbitt, pushing the UUP into third place.
This is the second most populous constituency in the North and the second-safest SDLP area after Foyle.
A future boundary review could reduce its unionist population, thus making nationalist gains more likely.
The SDLP took three of the six seats in 1998, and the local election results in 2001 appear to confirm the party's grip on these. However, Mr McGrady, who achieved his party's best result in the 1997 Westminster election, is not standing.
The party is putting up four candidates, two former assembly members, Mr Eamonn O'Neill and Mr P.J. Bradley, and two first-timers in Ms Margaret Ritchie and Ms Marian Fitzpatrick. Much emphasis is being put on the party's ability to manage their first-preference total and transfers effectively in what is a very diverse constituency.
Sinn Féin is fielding three candidates, hoping to raise its stake to two seats, but Mr Murphy has not been selected despite his strong showing in the Westminster poll in 2001. The party has selected a Down councillor, Mr Willie Clark, and Ms Caitriona Ruane, who is to the fore in the campaign to free the three suspects held in Colombia, and Mr Eamonn McConvey.
Mr Dermot Nesbitt, a former minister, has the sole UUP seat.
The party's showing is something of a surprise given that it held the Westminster seat for so long, while the DUP's Jim Wells seems set to secure his seat.