Sinn Fein could strike out Bell in ding-dong Louth battle

Mr Arthur Morgan, a company director from Omeath, will be the Sinn Fein candidate in Louth at the next general election

Mr Arthur Morgan, a company director from Omeath, will be the Sinn Fein candidate in Louth at the next general election. If he is successful, it is likely to be at the expense of Fianna Fail or Labour, but neither party will concede the seat without a battle.

There was no change in either party representation or personnel in the constituency last time, with Fianna Fail's Mr Dermot Ahern and Mr Seamus Kirk, Fine Gael's Mr Brendan McGahon and Labour's Mr Michael Bell retaining their seats.

Next time there will be at least one change in personnel, as Mr McGahon, first elected to the Dail in November 1982, stands down.

The Fine Gael front-runner will be Senator Fergus O'Dowd, from Drogheda, who almost unseated Mr McGahon in the last election. Mr McGahon had indicated he would not run again, but changed his mind and was added to the ticket after failing to get selected at the convention.

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Mr O'Dowd and Mr Terry Brennan, the two selected candidates, were not pleased. Mr McGahon trailed Mr O'Dowd by 140 votes in the first count but managed to hold his seat, after several counts, with the help of transfers from Mr Brennan, who, like himself, comes from the Dundalk end of the constituency.

With one guaranteed Fine Gael seat, Sinn Fein will be looking for weaknesses in Fianna Fail and Labour.

Mr Ahern seems a secure bet to retain his seat, having topped the poll with 10,192 votes, representing 22.64 per cent of the poll last time. He was followed by Mr Kirk, who had 5,667 first preferences and eventually retained his seat with the help of 1,279 transfers from his running mate, Ms Maria O'Brien-Campbell, on the eighth count and 1,239 votes from the PD candidate, Ms Mary Grehan, on the ninth count.

Mr Bell saw the Labour vote slump from 22.1 per cent in 1992 to 10.5 per cent. He got 4,725 first preferences and was elected 1,800 votes short of the quota.

Last time Sinn Fein ran two candidates and doubled its vote to 8 per cent and believes Mr Morgan, who won a county council seat last year, has a real chance of victory next time. He got nearly 1,500 first preferences and was over the quota on the first count in the Dundalk-Carlingford electoral area. He also ran in the European elections in the Leinster constituency, getting over 20,000 first preferences. He is active on the ground, stressing environmental issues in particular.

Some local sources believe Mr Bell may be more vulnerable to Mr Morgan's challenge than Mr Kirk. Fianna Fail increased its vote by three points and gained two seats, securing an overall majority on Louth County Council in the local elections. However, in border constituencies, Sinn Fein usually gains votes at the expense of Fianna Fail.